堰塞体稳定性快速评价方法研究#br#

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2019.1240

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摘要准确、快速地对堰塞体的稳定性进行评价，对应急抢险具有至关重大的意义，而目前的堰塞体稳定性快速评价方法均无法定量考虑堰塞体的颗粒组成对其稳定性的影响。基于收集得到的国内外1 434个已溃与未溃堰塞体案例的基础资料，构建堰塞体案例数据库，在此基础上采用逻辑回归的方法，建立一套新的堰塞体稳定性快速评价方法，该方法可以综合考虑堰塞体的形态特征、颗粒组成及上游堰塞湖的水动力条件，并根据可获取的物质组成信息的多寡，选择27个拥有材料颗分曲线的已溃与未溃堰塞体案例建立了精细化评价方法，选择115个拥有材料组成描述的已溃与未溃堰塞体建立了简化评价方法。重新选取15个具有拥有材料颗分曲线的案例和67个具有材料组成描述的案例验证新的评价方法，并与国内外同类的评价方法进行对比，计算结果显示，新建立的精细化评价方法的绝对准确率、保守准确率与错判率分别为86.67%，93.33%和6.67%，简化评价方法的绝对准确率、保守准确率与错判率分别为88.06%，94.03%和5.97%。与国内外同类评价方法的对比验证了新的评价方法的可靠性与优越性。

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	单熠博1
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关键词 ：工程地质, 堰塞体稳定性, 快速评价方法, 数据库, 颗粒组成, 验证, 对比

Abstract：It is of significant importance to evaluate the stability of landslide dams accurately and rapidly for emergency rescue. At present，however，all the rapid evaluation methods cannot evaluate quantitatively the influence of the grain composition of landslide dam deposits on the dam stability. In this study，a database of landslide dams is established based on 1434 unstable and stable cases around the world，and then a set of new rapid evaluation method is proposed by using the logistic regression methodology. The method can consider the morphological characteristics and grain composition of the landslide dam，as well as the hydrodynamic conditions of the dammed lake. Further，based on the available information of material composition of the landslide dam deposits，a detailed evaluation method is developed by 27 unstable and stable cases with the grain-size distribution curve，and the simplified evaluation method is proposed by 115 unstable and stable cases with the description of material composition. Subsequently，15 cases with the grain-size distribution curve and 67 cases with the description of material composition are reselected to verify the new evaluation method and to compare it with the similar evaluation methods domestic and overseas. The calculated results show that the absolute accuracy rate，conservation rate and false rate of the detailed evaluation method are 86.67%，93.33% and 6.67%，respectively，and the absolute accuracy rate，conservation rate and false rate of the simplified evaluation method are 88.06%，94.03%，and 5.97%，respectively. In addition，the comparisons with other evaluation methods prove the reliability and superiority of the new evaluation method.

Key words： engineering geology landslide dam stability rapid evaluation method database grain composition verification comparison

引用本文:

单熠博1，陈生水1，2，钟启明1，2. 堰塞体稳定性快速评价方法研究#br#[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2020, 39(9): 1847-1859.
SHAN Yibo1，CHEN Shengshui1，2，ZHONG Qiming1，2. A rapid evaluation method of landslide dam stability#br#. , 2020, 39(9): 1847-1859.

链接本文:

http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2019.1240 或 http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2020/V39/I9/1847

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