基于盾构机掘进参数对地表沉降影响敏感度的风险分析

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.0236

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Abstract When the earth pressure balance shield machine(EPBM) advances through in soft ground，it is essential to optimize the driving parameters so that the surface settlement induced by tunneling meets the requirement of deformation. The EPBM driving parameters including advance speed，ground surface settlement were measured from a greenfield site of the shield tunneling section between Jianguo road station and Tianjin railway station of metro line 2. Based on the field measured data，a 3D finite element model was established to analyze the tunneling impact on the surrounding soil. The numerical results agreed well with the measure data of the greenfield site and thus the model was verified. Furthermore，the sensitivity analysis of the ground settlement to the parameters was conducted under the normal construction condition. Fault tree basic events were derived from the key driving parameters during tunneling and then the quantitative risk analysis was performed. The results showed that the value of the key driving parameters varied with the shield advance speed. The parameters were also related with each other. Moreover，the risk factors were ordered based on the sensitivity and risk of the ground settlement，under the condition that the normal advance speed was approximately 30 mm/min. Therefore，the ground settlement induced by tunneling could be fine controlled according to the order of the risk factors.

Key words： tunnelling engineering driving parameters advance speed greenfield sensitivity risk analysis

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http://www.rockmech.org/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.0236 OR http://www.rockmech.org/EN/Y2015/V34/Is1/3604

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