基于广义子集模拟样本加权法的边坡多失效模式可靠度分析

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2017.0643

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Abstract It is not uncommon that a slope involves multiple possible failure modes. Monte Carlo simulation provides a way to estimate the failure probabilities of these multiple modes. However，it incurs frequent criticisms because of its low efficiency at small failure probability levels. To address this problem，a sample weighting method combined with the generalized Subset Simulation(GSS) is proposed in this paper to estimate efficiently the reliabilities of geotechnical structure system and the multiple failure modes involved in this system. The equations for calculating the failure probability at various failure threshold values of each mode are derived. The probabilistic fault tree model is employed to establish the limit state function of sophisticated system response. This limit state function of system is then incorporated into the driving variable of GSS to divide the whole random sample space into several mutually independent and collectively exhaustive sub-spaces. In the implementation of GSS，the probability weighting coefficients of different sub spaces are determined adaptively. With the probability weighting coefficients，the weighting coefficients of samples in each sub space are estimated properly，which can be further used to compute the failure probability of each failure mode in the system with different failure threshold values. A rock wedge slope is employed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method. It was found that the proposed method improved significantly the computational efficiency in estimating the reliabilities of the multiple failure modes in the geotechnical structure system. The proposed method not only estimate the reliabilities of multiple failure modes through a single simulation and avoid the repeated simulation for different failure modes，but also enhance the efficiency of computing the failure probability of failure modes at low failure probability level. Moreover，it provides the failure probability values corresponding to various failure threshold values for all the modes concerned.

Key words： slope engineering multiple failure modes failure threshold value system reliability generalized subset simulation sample weighting

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	Articles by authors
	YANG Zhiyong1
	2
	LI Dianqing1
	2
	CAO Zijun1
	2
	TANG Xiaosong1
	2

Cite this article:

YANG Zhiyong1,2,LI Dianqing1, et al. Efficient analysis of slope reliability with multiple failure modes using sample weighting method in generalized subset simulation[J]. , 2018, 37(3): 630-641.

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https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2017.0643 OR https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2018/V37/I3/630

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