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| Research on the identification of acceleration starting point in inverse velocity method and the prediction of sliding time |
| MA Haitao，ZHANG Yihai，YU Zhengxing |
| (China Academy of Safety Science and Technology，Beijing 100012，China) |
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Abstract For mines or natural soil and rock slopes，most landslide forecast methods are based on the three-stage creep theory of slope deformation，and the prediction of the sliding time is carried out according to the displacement after the onset of the acceleration before sliding. In this paper，after analyzing the displacement continuously monitored by S-SAR slope radar，it is found that the sliding time predicted by using OOA as the starting point of the inverse velocity method has a lag to some extent. Based on the normal distribution characteristics of the deformation velocity random variable in the uniform deformation phase of the slope，a method for dynamic identification of the SP position using the confidence interval of normal distribution is proposed. By converting the S-t coordinate system to the T-t coordinate system，a T-lgt prediction model is established，which can effectively improve the accuracy of landslide prediction time by applying the displacement data after the SP in some case.
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2021, Vol. 40 
