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| Quantitative assessment of landslide property risk based on impact probability of element at risk |
| WU Yue1，2，3，XIANG Lingjun1，WU Tongqing1，2，3，WANG Xiaolei1，WANG Binglong4 |
| (1. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture，Chongqing University of Science and Technology，Chongqing 401331，China；2. Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards Mitigation for Mountainous Highway and Waterway，Chongqing Municipal Education Commission，Chongqing Jiaotong University，Chongqing 400074，China；3. Chongqing Key Laboratory of Energy Engineering Mechanics and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation，Chongqing 401331，China；4. Southeast Sichuan Geological Brigade，Chongqing Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources，Chongqing 400038，China) |
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Abstract The impact probability of element at landslide risk refers to the impact probability of a element at risk in a certain spatial position under a certain disaster intensity. For this，on the basis of the sliding body motion model，put forward the sliding friction coefficient as a random variable，to calculate the impact probability by the Monte Carlo method，and then landslide risk assessment summarized as three kinds of evaluation model，and the corresponding calculation software system，using C# software programming achieved from the slope stability to the sliding probability analysis and calculation in the whole process of the impact process. Conclusion is obtained by using an real case，the results show that considering the impact probability of element at risk is conform to engineering experience and the rule of the landslide reliability theory，the indicators which use impact probability is more scientific and reasonable than other indicators，just need to calculate the impact probability of each element at landslide risk，and will increase a large amount of calculation work，but the software system can realize the massive spatial data analysis and graphical display，will improve the quantitative degree of landslide risk assessment.
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2020, Vol. 39 
