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| Refined meteorological early warning for rainfall-induced landslide based on temporal probability model |
| SONG Yufei1，LI Xiang2，FAN Wen2，YU Ningyu2，CAO Yanbo2，DENG Longsheng2，TAO Hong3 |
(1. School of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence，Chang'an University，Xi'an，Shaanxi 710069，China；2. Department of Geological Engineering，Chang'an University，Xi'an，Shaanxi 710069，China；3. Shaanxi Institute of Geo-environment
Monitoring，Xi'an，Shaanxi 710054，China) |
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Abstract The landslide meteorological early warning model based on empirical rainfall thresholds(ERT) always has a low warning accurate，and the temporal probability model(TPM) is expected to make up for this shortcoming. In order to verify this idea，this paper conducted a comparative experiment. First，we used accumulated effective rainfall-duration(EE-D) and rainfall on the day-accumulated effective rainfall in the previous 4 days(R0-AE4) as variables to construct two sets of TPM models，the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve and correlation coefficient were then used to evaluate the discriminative and predictive abilities of ERT/TPM. Then，the conditional probability formula was used to couple the spatiotemporal probability of landslides，and a probabilistic landslide meteorological early warning model(P-LEWM) was proposed. Finally，through the way of simulated warning，P-LEWM was compared with the matrix-based landslide early warning model(M-LEWM)，which was constructed with ERT，the results show that：(1) The ERT/TPM constructed by R0-AE4 is more accurate in judging the hazard level of rainfall to trigger landslides，the area under the ROC curve(AUC) increased by 6.8% to 12.5% compared to EE-D；(2) The TPM proposed in this paper can predict the probability of rainfall triggering landslides accurately，the correlation coefficient between the predicted amount of triggering-rainfall and the recorded amount is above 0.83，moreover，the EE-D type TPM is more accurate for heavy rainfall prediction，while the R0-AE4 is more suitable for regular rainfall events；(3) The EE-D type ERT will underestimates the hazard level of long-lasting heavy rainfall triggering landslide，which caused M-LEWM missed lots of landslides which happened in two typical rainfall events in 2018，with an missed rate of more than 50%，while P-LEWM constructed with TPM has a correct alert rate of over 90%；(4) Because of the accurate TPM and reasonable spatiotemporal model coupling method，the correct alert rate of the P-LEWM proposed in this article has been significantly improved compared to M-LEWM，the correct alert rate increased by 20.7% to 26%，the reasonable correct alert rate increased by 15.6% to 28.6%，and the missed alert rate decreased by more than 20.5%.
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