基于蒙特卡洛模拟的岩质边坡可靠度设计方法

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.1210

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Abstract This paper develops a reliability-based design(RBD) approach for rock slopes based on Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)，and proposed a practical design framework that is comprised of four design modules. Under the proposed design framework，the design process of MCS-based RBD of rock slopes is transparent and accessible to geotechnical practitioners so that they can make assumptions deemed appropriate for a specific site and have flexibility to adjust the target failure probability and uncertainty model. The proposed approach and design framework are illustrated using the Sau Mau Ping rock slope in Hong Kong. Results show that：(1) The failure probabilities of possible designs obtained from a single run of MCS in the proposed approach agree well with those obtained using repeated runs of MCS for different designs，which validates the proposed approach. (2) The target failure probability and uncertainty modeling may affect the final designs significantly. Such effects can be taken into account in RBD of rock slopes through the proposed approach in a rational manner. (3) In design practice，overestimation of the variability of uncertain parameters or ignoring the negative correlation between them might lead to overestimation of standard deviation of safety factor and，hence，underestimation of reliability index，which subsequently results in conservative designs. On the other hand，ignoring the positive correlation between uncertain parameters might lead to overestimation of reliability index and unsafe designs.

Key words： slope engineering rock slope uncertainty Monte Carlo simulation reliability-based design correlation

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	Articles by authors
	PENG Xing1
	2
	LI Dianqing1
	2
	CAO Zijun1
	2
	TANG Xiaosong1
	2
	ZHOU Chuangbing1
	2
	3

Cite this article:

PENG Xing1,2,LI Dianqing1, et al. Reliability-based design approach of rock slopes using Monte Carlo simulation[J]. , 2016, 35(S2): 3794-3805.

URL:

https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.1210 OR https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2016/V35/IS2/3794

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