基于水文模型的降雨型滑坡泥石流灾害预测

doi:10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2025.0296

Abstract
Figure/Table
References (0)
Related Citation (15)

Download: PDF (5255 KB) HTML (1 KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract Rainfall plays a crucial role in triggering these disasters. Traditional studies utilizing statistical analysis and machine learning to forecast these disasters primarily rely on historical data, which results in models with limited generalizability. To enhance the simulation of rainfall-induced disaster processes, this study focuses on Muping Town and develops an integrated hydrological model based on the Macro Dynamic Propagation Model (MDPM) to simulate rainfall-runoff evolution in the region. By incorporating raster data, the study area is transformed into a network structure, abstracting the rainfall propagation process as a network fluid flow problem. Additionally, based on the mechanisms underlying rainfall-induced disasters, the model is divided into five computational modules: surface runoff propagation, groundwater propagation, vegetation interception, infiltration, and runoff erosion. The rainfall simulation results are represented using water argument and groundwater argument data. The study designed four rainfall scenarios for simulation: single-peak rainfall (peak intensity of 100 mm/h), single-peak rainfall (peak intensity of 200 mm/h), constant rainfall (50 mm/h), and constant rainfall (100 mm/h). The model's simulation results are visualized and compared with historical disaster data from the study area. The findings indicate that the model effectively captures the formation processes of natural phenomena, such as groundwater accumulation and surface runoff generation. It vividly illustrates the temporal and spatial evolution of groundwater and surface runoff during rainfall, successfully identifying high-risk zones susceptible to landslides and debris flow disasters within the study area. This has practical significance for the prevention and control of geological disasters.

Key words： slope engineering MDPM integrated hydrological model rainfall landslide and debris flow disaster prediction

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	LUO Jie
	WANG Hairong
	KOU Boxiao
	TANG Zhihui*

Cite this article:

LUO Jie,WANG Hairong,KOU Boxiao, et al. Prediction of rainfall induced landslides and debris flows based on hydrological models[J]. , 2026, 45(S1): 309-329.

URL:

https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2025.0296 OR https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2026/V45/IS1/309

[1] 马许平，曾庆利，廖立业，等. 舟曲虎家崖滑坡直接转化泥石流的特征、过程与机理研究[J]. 工程地质学报，2024，32(1)：170–182.(MA Xuping，ZENG Qingli，LIAO Liye，et al. Characteristics，process and mechanism of the Hujiaya debris flow directly from landslide in Zhouqu County，China[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology，2024，32(1)：170–182.(in Chinese))
[2] 郭剑，崔一飞. 滑坡–泥石流转化研究进展[J]. 工程地质学报，2023，31(3)：762–779.(GUO Jian，CUI Yifei. An overview of landslide-induced debris flow[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology，2023，31(3)：762–779.(in Chinese))
[3] 李林，李涛，何治林，等. 基于试验模拟的滑坡泥石流灾害链风险监测预警[J]. 水土保持通报，2024，44(2)：167–175.(LI Lin，LI Tao，HE Zhilin，et al. Monitoring and early warning of landslide and debris flow disaster chain risk based on experimental simulation[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation，2024，44(2)：167–175.(in Chinese))
[4] 何爽爽，汪君，王会军. 滑坡泥石流大尺度统计预报模型的实时检验[J]. 大气科学学报，2019，42(1)：78–92.(HE Shuangshuang，WANG Jun，WANG Huijun. Real-time warning test of landslide and debris flow with a statistical model in large scale[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences，2019，42(1)：78–92.(in Chinese))
[5] 杨昶，铁永波，张宪政，等. 我国泥石流数值模拟研究历程及发展趋势[J]. 水土保持学报，2023，37(5)：1–11.(YANG Chang，TIE Yongbo，ZHANG Xianzheng，et al. Research history and development trend of numerical simulation of debris flow in China[J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation，2023，37(5)：1–11.(in Chinese))
[6] ZHANG Y H，GE T T，TIAN W，et al. Debris flow susceptibility mapping using machine-learning techniques in Shigatse area，China[J]. Remote Sensing，2019，11(23)：2 801.
[7] MALKA A. Landslide susceptibility mapping of Gdynia using geographic information system-based statistical models[J]. Natural Hazards，2021，107(1)：639–674.
[8] SAITO H，NAKAYAMA D，MATSUYAMA H. Relationship between the initiation of a shallow landslide and rainfall intensity-duration thresholds in Japan[J]. Geomorphology，2009，118(1)：167–175.
[9] XU W B，YU W J，ZHANG G P. Prediction method of debris flow by logistic model with two types of rainfall：a case study in the Sichuan，China[J]. Natural Hazards，2012，62(2)：733–744.
[10] 孙鹏，胡磊，胡玉乾，等. 横断山区汶川县滑坡泥石流降雨致灾阈值研究[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版)，2023，59(2)：187–195.(SUN Peng，HU Lei，HU Yuqian，et al. On disaster threshold of landslide and debris flow rainfall in Wenchuan County[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)，2023，59(2)：187–195.(in Chinese))
[11] CARRARA A，CARDINALI M，DETTI R，et al. GIS techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslide hazard[J] Earth Surface Processes and Landforms，1991，16(5)：427–445.
[12] 王伟，袁雯宇，邹丽芳，等. 基于滑坡敏感性评价的库区水动力型滑坡区域综合预警研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2022，41(3)：479–491.(WANG Wei，YUAN Wenyu，ZHOU Lifang，et al. Comprehensive regional-scale early warning of water-induced landslides in reservoir areas based on landslide susceptibility assessment[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2022，41(3)：479–491.(in Chinese))
[13] 徐繁树. 基于卷积神经网络的怒江州泥石流易发性评估[硕士学位论文][D]. 昆明：云南师范大学，2023.(XU Fanshu. Debris flow susceptibility assessment in Nujiang Prefecture based on convolutional neural network[M. S. Thesis][D]. Kunming：Yunnan Normal University，2023.(in Chinese))
[14] HAIRANI A，RAHARDJO A P，LEGONO D，et al. Rainfall monitoring to support temporal and spatial information of debris flow initiation in Merapi Volcano[J]. International Journal of Integrated Engineering，2021，13(3)：132–141.
[15] ZHANG M，YIN Y P，HUANG B L. Mechanisms of rainfall-induced landslides in gently inclined red beds in the eastern Sichuan Basin，SW China[J]. Landslides，2015，12(5)：973–983.
[16] 岳中琦. 梅大高速公路路基边坡失稳条件与滑坡机理初探[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报，2024，35(4)：1–12.(YUE Zhongqi. Study on the instability condition and landslide mechanism of subgrade slope in Mei-Da Expressway[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control，2024，35(4)：1–12.(in Chinese))
[17] YANG W M，WU S R，ZHANG Y S，et al. Research on formation mechanism of the debris flow on slope induced by rainfall[J]. Earth Science Frontiers，2007，14(6)：197–204.
[18] CHEN J Y，ADAMS B J. Integration of artificial neural networks with conceptual models in rainfall-runoff modeling[J]. Journal of Hydrology，2005，318(1/4)：232–249.
[19] 马丽君，王传涛，王雯军，等. 基于SCS-CN模型的郑州市区域产流特征研究[J]. 水土保持通报，2022，42(4)：203–209.(MA Lijun，WANG Chuantao，WANG Wenjun，et al. Regional runoff characteristics in Zhengzhou City on SCS-SN model[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation，2022，42(4)：203–209.(in Chinese))
[20] 赵武成，买小虎，王琦，等. 基于SCS-CN模型的黄土高原丘陵区坡地微型集雨垄垄面径流量预测[J]. 生态学杂志，2022，41(1)：199–208.(ZHAO Wucheng，MAI Xiaohu，WANG Qi，et al. Ridge surface runoff estimation for micro-rainwater-harvesting-ridges on slopping land in the hilly areas of the Loess Plateau based on SCS-CN model[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology，41(1)：199–208.(in Chinese))
[21] TAO W H，SHAO F F，SU L J，et al. An analytical model for simulating the rainfall-interception-infiltration-runoff process with non-uniform rainfall[J]. Journal of Environmental Management，2023，344(15)：118490.
[22] 庄建琦，崔鹏，郭晓军. 基于水文模型泥石流汇流预测——以蒋家沟一级支沟大凹子沟泥石流为例[J]. 灾害学，2013，28(2)：55–59.(ZHUANG Jianqi，CUI Peng，GUO Xiaojun. The runoff process of debris flow calculated based on hydrological model—A case study on Dawazi debris flow gully[J]. Journal of Catastrophology，2013，28(2)：55–59.(in Chinese))
[23] 许泽星，刘荣华，孙东亚，等. 考虑泥沙影响的山洪灾害预警方法研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱，2025，35(6)：11–19.(XU Zexing，LIU Ronghua，SUN Dongya，et al. Research on flash flood warning methods considering sediment effects[J]. China Flood and Drought Management，2025，35(6)：11–19.(in Chinese))
[24] 张春堂，张珂，陈国鼎，等. 基于智能网格降水和水文-滑坡耦合模型的全国洪水滑坡灾害滚动预报研究[J]. 水资源保护，2025，41(3)：83–92.(ZHANG Chuntang，ZHANG Ke，CHEN Guoding，et al. Research on rolling forecast of national flood and landslide disasters based on intelligent-grid precipitation and coupled hydrological-landslide model[J]. Water Resources Protection，2025，41(3)：83–92.(in Chinese))
[25] 杨杰，范宣梅，魏振磊，等. 基于水文过程的震后泥石流降雨阈值模型研究——以泸定震区磨岗岭流域为例[J]. 人民长江，2025，56(7)：123–131.(YANG Jie，FAN Xuanmei，WEI Zhenglei，et al. Study on rainfall threshold model of post-seismic debris flows based on hydrological processes—A case study on the Mogangling watershed in the Luding seismic zone[J]. Yangtze River，2025，56(7)：123–131. (in Chinese))
[26] 王浪，郭晓军，马力. 基于SCS水文模型的泥石流预报模型在四川宝兴冷木沟的应用[J]. 灾害学，2016，31(4)：128–133.(WANG Lang，GUO Xiaojun，MA Li. The application of debris flow forecast model based on SCS hydrological model in Lengmu Gully[J]. Journal of Catastrophology，2016，31(4)：128–133.(in Chinese))
[27] 梁峰铭，谭超，黄锋华，等．基于K-means聚类的降雨时空特征提取对水文模型预测结果的影响[J]. 水利水电技术(中英文)，2026，57(1)：192–204.(LIANG Fengming，TAN Chao，HUANG Fenghua，et al. The impact of precipitation spatiotemporal feature extraction based on K-means clustering on hydrological model predictions[J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering，2026，57(1)：192–204.(in Chinese))
[28] PATRICK J M，TED M C，OWEN N，et al. Modelling groundwater flooding in a lowland karst catchment[J]. Journal of Hydrology，2020，580：124361.
[29] CHEN L H，DENG J，YANG W Z，et al. Hydrological modelling of large-scale karst-dominated basin using a grid-based distributed karst hydrological model[J]. Journal of Hydrology，2024，625：130459.
[30] ZHENG W H，MOU R F. A dynamic network loading model for hub station pedestrian flow collection and distribution[J]. Mathematics，2023，11(17)：3 654.
[31] ZHENG W H，ZHOU X Y，ZHANG T J，et al. How to predict the evacuation capacity of hub stations：A dynamic network loading model based on BIM and MDPM[J]. Transportation Research Part C Emerging Technologies，2024，164(5)：104682.
[32] ZHENG W H，WANG H R，LUO J，et al. Integrated hydrological model based on undirected MDPM：A case study of rainfall process simulation for mountain highways[J]. Journal of Hydrology，2025，660：133130.
[33] 赵永富，田恩龙，张国栋. 达西定律与渗流控制[J]. 黑龙江水利科技，2008，36(4)：65(ZHAO Yongfu，TIAN Enlong，ZHANG Guodong. Darcy's law and flow control[J]. Heilongjiang Science and Technology of Water Conservancy，2008，36(4)：65.(in Chinese))
[34] ANDREWS R G. The use of relative infiltration indices in computing runoff[J]. Soil Conservation Service，1954：6.
[35] FAN F L，DENG Y B，HU X F，et al. Estimating composite curve number using an improved SCS-CN method with remotely sensed variables in Guangzhou，China[J]. Remote Sensing，2013，5(3)：1 425–1 438.
[36] HUANG M B，GALLICHAND J，WANG Z L，et al. A modification to the soil conservation service curve number method for steep slopes in the loess plateau of China[J]. Hydrological Processes，2005，20(3)：579–589.
[37] 李润奎，朱阿兴，陈腊娇，等. SCS-CN模型中土壤参数的作用机制研究[J]. 自然资源学报，2013，28(10)：1 778–1 787.(LI Runkui，ZHU Axing，CHEN Lajiao，et al. Effects of soil parameters in SCS-CN runoff model[J]. Journal of Natural Resource，2013，28(10)：1 778–1 787.(in Chinese))
[38] LIU W，YANG Z J，HE S M. Modeling the landslide-generated debris flow from formation to propagation and run-out by considering the effect of vegetation[J]. Landslides，2021，18(1)：43–48.
[39] HORTON R E. Rainfall interception[J]. Monthly weather review，1919，9(47)：603–623.
[40] MERRIAN A R. A note on the interception loss equation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres，1960，65(11)：3 850–3 851.
[41] ASTON A R. Rainfall interception by eight small trees[J]. Journal of Hydrology，1979，42：383–396.
[42] 王彦辉，于澎涛，徐德应，等. 林冠截留降雨模型转化和参数规律的初步研究[J]. 北京林业大学学报，1998，20(6)：29–34.(WANG Yanhui，YU Pengtao，XU Deying，et al. A preliminary study on transformation of rainfall interception models and parameter?s variation[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University，1998，20(6)：29–34.(in Chinese))
[43] 孙彩红，苏泳娴，韩留生，等. 广东省2004—2016年植被冠层降雨截留模拟及时空变化特征[J]. 生态学报，2020，40(7)：2 252–2 266. (SUN Caihong，SU Yongxian，HAN Liusheng，et al. The simulation and spatial-temporal variations of atmospheric rainfall interception by vegetation canopies based on MODIS LAI data at the basin scale in the Guangdong Province from 2004 to 2016[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica，2020，40(7)：2 252–2 266.(in Chinese))
[44] WOODWARD D E，HAWKINS R H，JIANG R Y，et al. Runoff curve number method：examination of the initial abstraction ratio[C]// Proceedings of the World Water and Environmental Resourdes Congress. [S. l.]：[s. n.]，2003，DOI:10.1061/40685(2003)308.
[45] YALIN M S. An expression for bed-load transportation[J]. Journal of the Hydraulics Division，1963，89(3)：221–250.
[46] ALONSO C V，NEIBLING W H，FOSTER G R. Estimating sediment transport capacity in watershed modeling[J]. Transaction of the ASABE，1981，24(5)：1 211–1 220.
[47] WANG S Y，FLANAGAN C D，ENGEL A B. Estimating sediment transport capacity for overland flow[J]. Journal of Hydrology，2019，578(7)：123985.
[48] KEIFER C J，CHU H H. Synthetic storm pattern for drainage design[J]. Journal of the Hydraulics Division，1957，83(4)，https://doi.org/ 10.1061/JYCEAJ.0000104.
[49] 陈东霞，龚晓南，马亢. 厦门地区非饱和残积土的强度随含水量变化规律[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2015，34(增1)：3 484–3 490. (CHEN Dongxia，GONG Xiaonan，MA Kang. Variation of the shear strength of Xiamen unsaturated residual soils with water content[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2015，34(Supp.1)：3 484–3 490.(in Chinese))