Abstract:A lot of factors such as topography,geological conditions and rainfall influence slope deformation. The importance of rainfall is difficult to determine. Based on the analysis of the multiple factors of slope deformation and observation of monitoring deformations,a statistic method to correlate slope deformation and rainfall was developed including the hysteresis of rainfall. Whereafter,by applying observation to ordinary statistic model comprising rainfall,temperature and time factor,the main factors affecting slope deformation were extracted by stepwise regression. According to the factors extracted and time series observation,a recursion model was obtained with multilayer recursion analysis method of dynamic system forecasting. At the end,a time series evolution forecasting model of slope deformation was presented combining with regression model and recursion model. The model syncretizes the merits of regression analysis and recursive analysis for enhancing the capability of forecasting evolution of slope deformation. Through comparison between the forecasting and the observation of monitoring deformations,the deformation and stability of slope can be monitored. The engineering case analysis indicates that the model is effective and has big value for forecasting of slope deformation.