Abstract:How to predict and forecast the landslide hazard effectively is always a key point for prevention from casualty and economic loss caused by landslides. Based on the coupling analysis of the geology and meteorology,it is possible to improve the precision of the landslide forecast. The occurrence of landslides is mainly controlled by the following three factors:topography,geology and rainfall. A new method of landslide probabilistic forecast is proposed considering the combination of geologic environment with weather conditions. The urban area of Chongqing,which is one of the cities with most serious landslides in China,is taken as the study example. Taking into account the geologic environmental factors such as slope gradient,slope shape,lithology combination,structures of rock mass and hydrologic geology,the landslide susceptibility zonation is conducted with the information model. The prediction criterion of landslides in each susceptibility subarea is established by two variable combinations:the maximum 24 hours rainfall and the antecedent effective precipitation of 15 days. Finally,the feasibility of the probabilistic forecast on landslides using weather prediction is discussed with an actual example.