Abstract:Based on the summarization of the achievements of landslide prediction at home and abroad,the in-depth study is done on their applicability and service conditions. Aiming at slope types,features,deformation traits and destroy mechanism of high steep valley slope at Jinping I Hydropower Station,and applying monitoring results,a comprehensive prediction design is suggested. In the space,according to the occurrences of unfavorable geological phenomena such as faults F5,f42–9,deep fracture SL44–1 and lamprophyre vein X,all of them can be treated as the boundary conditions for slides,potential instable blocks of slope on the left abutment are estimated which take on a wedge-shaped sliding model. In the sametime,through using three kinds of joint prediction methods such as statistic models and nonlinear models,judging from the shape of curves of deformation-time and their deformation velocities,it is found that the slope is at the state of slowly creeping to uniform deforming with a deforming velocity of 0.05 mm/d. So the comprehensive prediction models fitting for Jinping I Hydropower Station are designed and four early warning criteria are proposed so as to provide scientific evidence for the successful progress of the slope excavation.