斜坡失稳的降雨阈值模型及其应用

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摘要为了实现对斜坡稳定性的可视化分析与预测，以楚雄双柏一斜坡作为研究工点，在数字高程模型(DEM)的基础上，结合降雨量、地形地貌、土的特性等因素，运用降雨阈值模型计算斜坡单元变形失稳所需临界降雨量，分析降雨入渗以及地形坡度对斜坡稳定性的影响。比较模型预测结果与斜坡实际监测结果表明，降雨阈值模型能较好地模拟斜坡各单元产生滑坡失稳的诱因，即所需降雨量大小；当降雨量大于各单元产生滑坡失稳的临界值时，该单元即有可能产生失稳滑动。模型预测的产生滑坡的斜坡单元与现场失稳情况较为一致。

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关键词 ：边坡工程, 降雨阈值, 降雨型滑坡, 数字高程模型, 滑坡分布, 预测

Abstract：In order to realize visual analysis and prediction of slope stability，a worksite slope in Shuangbai，Chuxiong is investigated. Based on digital elevation model(DEM)，combining the factors such as rainfall，topography and geomorphology，and soil characteristics，the threshold rainfall for deformation and instability of the slope unit is calculated by the rainfall threshold model. And the effects of rainfall infiltration and gradient on slope stability are analyzed. Comparing the results between the model prediction and the actual monitoring of slope stability，it is shown that the rainfall threshold model can simulate well the needful rainfall which can induce the instability of slope in each unit. The unit of slope may be instable when the rainfall is larger than the rainfall threshold of slope. The simulation result fits the real slope instability cases very well.

Key words： slope engineering rainfall threshold rainfall-induced landslides digital elevation model landslide distribution prediction

引用本文:

何玉琼1，徐则民2，张勇3，王志奇3. 斜坡失稳的降雨阈值模型及其应用[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2012, 31(7): 1484-1490.
HE Yuqiong1，XU Zemin2，ZHANG Yong3，WANG Zhiqi3. RAINFALL THRESHOLD MODEL OF RAINFALL-INDUCED SLOPE INSTABILITY AND ITS APPLICATION. , 2012, 31(7): 1484-1490.

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http://www.rockmech.org/CN/Y2012/V31/I7/1484

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