盐岩地下储库群运营期多失效模式下系统时变可靠性分析方法研究

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摘要盐岩地下储库以其优良的密闭性及安全性得到日益广泛的应用，但对其体系可靠性及风险的研究尚属探索阶段。运用系统可靠性理论，对储库群在设计运营期内的失效进行定义。考虑运营期内盐岩蠕变引起的腔体体积收缩和矿柱塑性区发展对储库群系统可靠性的影响，给出储库群系统的多种失效模式，建立储库群系统可靠性分析模型。在考虑相关性的基础上，应用“最弱失效模式假设”对储库群系统进行时变可靠性分析评价。以金坛盐岩地下储库为工程背景，建立储库群数值模型，进行时变可靠性分析，得到一些有价值的结论。提出盐岩地下储库群系统时变可靠性分析方法，为盐岩地下储库群的安全运营和稳定性评价提供科学的依据。

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关键词 ：岩石力学, 盐岩储库群, 多失效模式, 系统可靠性模型, 最弱失效模式假设, 系统时变可靠性分析

Abstract：Underground salt rock storage cavern is widely used for its good sealability and safety performance，but the research on its system reliability and risk is still at the exploratory stage. Based on the system reliability analysis theory，the failure of storage group is defined in this article. Considering the influence of the cavern?s volume shrinkage and pillar?s plastic zone development resulting from salt rock?s creep property during operation period，the multiple failure modes of the storage group are given and the system reliability mode is built. Considering the correlativity of different elements and using the weakest failure mode assumption，the time-variant system reliability of underground salt rock storage group is analyzed. Based on Jintan salt rock storage group，a salt rock storage group numerical model is established and its time-variant system reliability is studied，and some valuable conclusions are obtained. A method of time-variant system reliability analysis is proposed and the result can provide reference for the safe operation and stability evaluation of the salt rock storage groups.

Key words： rock mechanics salt rock storage group multiple failure modes system reliability model weakest failure mode assumption time-variant system reliability analysis

收稿日期: 2012-10-24

引用本文:

贾超，张凯，张强勇. 盐岩地下储库群运营期多失效模式下系统时变可靠性分析方法研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2013, 32(5): 926-934.
JIA Chao，ZHANG Kai，ZHANG Qiangyong. STUDY OF TIME-VARIANT SYSTEM RELIABILITY ANALYTICAL METHOD FOR UNDERGROUND SALT ROCK STORAGE GROUP WITH MULTIPLE FAILURE MODES DURING OPERATION PERIOD. , 2013, 32(5): 926-934.

链接本文:

http://www.rockmech.org/CN/Y2013/V32/I5/926

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