淮南矿区11–2煤顶板岩石单轴抗压强度预测模型构建

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摘要为了探寻煤系地层泥岩和砂岩类单轴抗压强度和弹性模量间的关系，对顾北煤矿11–2煤顶板岩石进行室内单轴压缩试验，得到120组数据。采用SPSS19.0专业数理统计软件，以单轴抗压强度为因变量、弹性模量为自变量，分别建立线性函数、对数函数、二次函数、三次函数、指数函数和幂函数6种回归模型。经回归方程显著性检验、回归系数显著性检验、回归方程拟合优度、D-W检验、共线性检验和回归方程残差正态性、随机性检验，获得预测岩石单轴抗压强度的一元二次非线性回归预测模型。应用该模型对淮南矿区张集煤矿和潘二煤矿11–2煤顶板岩石单轴抗压强度进行预测与验证，结果表明预测值与试验值相符，该非线性回归预测模型可用于同一煤系地层岩石力学参数的预测。

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关键词 ：岩石力学, 煤系地层, 单轴抗压强度, 弹性模量, 非线性回归预测模型, 数学统计方法

Abstract：In order to investigate the relationship between uniaxial compressive strength(UCS) and elastic modulus of mudstone and sandstone in coal bearing strata，the uniaxial compressive tests of rock in No.11–2 coal seam roof of Gubei coal mine in Huainan mining area are conducted；and then 120 groups test data are obtained. Regarding the UCS as the dependent variable and the elastic modulus as the independent variable，six regression equations are proposed through the professional mathematical statistics software SPSS19.0，which are linear function，logarithmic function，quadratic function，cubic function，exponential function and power function respectively. The best nonlinear regression predictive model of the uniaxial compressive strength，namely quadratic regression equation，is established based on statistical analyses，which are regression equation significant test，regression coefficients significant test，goodness-of-fit test for regression equation，D-W inspection，linear regression equation of inspection，normality test and randomness test. Finally，the nonlinear regression predictive model is used to forecast the rock UCS in the No.11–2 coal seam roof of Zhangji and Pan?er coal mines in Huainan mining area. Comparative results show that the predicted values and the tested values are in good agreement and the model could be used to predict rock mechanical parameters in similar coal bearing strata.

Key words： rock mechanics coal bearing strata uniaxial compressive strength elastic modulus nonlinear regression predictive model mathematical statistic method

收稿日期: 2013-06-03

引用本文:

杨科1，2，3，袁亮1，3，祁连光1，2，廖斌琛3 . 淮南矿区11–2煤顶板岩石单轴抗压强度预测模型构建[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2013, 32(10): 1991-1998.
YANG Ke1，2，3，YUAN Liang1，3，QI Lianguang1，2，LIAO Binchen3. ESTABLISHING PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR ROCK UNIAXIAL COMPRESSIVE STRENGTH OF NO.11–2 COAL SEAM ROOF IN HUAINAN MINING AREA. , 2013, 32(10): 1991-1998.

链接本文:

http://www.rockmech.org/CN/Y2013/V32/I10/1991

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