Abstract：The post is considered as a continuous beam，anchor bolt as fixed or elastic support，the soil pressure load as a trapezoid distribution，based on the matrix displacement method and the Matlab symbol function for function，elastic support continuous beam internal force calculation program is compiled. Treating the bolt failure as the intermediate state of brittle fracture and ductile fracture，the limits of bolt system failure probability according to the brittle failure and continuity failure is calculated. The calculation results of an engineering example show that，if the bolt as the brittle structure，when one of the adjacent anchor bolt failure probability of failure increases rapidly，the maximum amplitude is as high as 12 times，verifing the brittle structure composed of statically indeterminate structure can be considered as a series system. Then brittle fracture bolt system failure probability upper bound based on the anchor bolt function correlation coefficient matrix is obtained. At last，function of ductile failure of anchor system is put forward based on the ideal state of the all bolts on the column reach the limit state at the same time，and the lower limit of failure probability is got.
TANIT C，CRAIG H B. Reliability-based design for internal stability of mechanically stabilized earth walls[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering，2004，130(2)：163-173.
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2013, Vol. 32 
