基于盾构机掘进参数对地表沉降影响敏感度的风险分析

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.0236

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摘要为了研究软土地区土压平衡盾构机在穿越重要区域过程中，不同掘进参数影响下的地表沉降能否满足变形控制标准，针对建国道站至天津站站盾构掘进工程，分析盾构掘进参数与掘进速度的关系，并建立基于所确定的盾构掘进参数的三维有限元模型，分析对周围地层沉降的影响规律，通过空旷场地下的实测结果对数值分析进行验证。在此基础上，针对各参数在正常施工范围内的波动对地表沉降影响的敏感度进行分析，最后以盾构掘进过程中的关键掘进参数为底事件建立风险故障树并进行定量的风险评估。研究结果表明：盾构掘进速度不同时，各掘进关键参数的取值范围不同，各掘进参数之间具有一定的相关性；盾构机以接近30 mm/min的速度正常掘进的前提下，得出对地表沉降影响敏感度及风险值的致险因子排序，从而可对盾构掘进引起变形的精细化控制提供参考。

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关键词 ：隧道工程, 掘进参数, 掘进速度, 空旷场地, 敏感度, 风险分析

Abstract：When the earth pressure balance shield machine(EPBM) advances through in soft ground，it is essential to optimize the driving parameters so that the surface settlement induced by tunneling meets the requirement of deformation. The EPBM driving parameters including advance speed，ground surface settlement were measured from a greenfield site of the shield tunneling section between Jianguo road station and Tianjin railway station of metro line 2. Based on the field measured data，a 3D finite element model was established to analyze the tunneling impact on the surrounding soil. The numerical results agreed well with the measure data of the greenfield site and thus the model was verified. Furthermore，the sensitivity analysis of the ground settlement to the parameters was conducted under the normal construction condition. Fault tree basic events were derived from the key driving parameters during tunneling and then the quantitative risk analysis was performed. The results showed that the value of the key driving parameters varied with the shield advance speed. The parameters were also related with each other. Moreover，the risk factors were ordered based on the sensitivity and risk of the ground settlement，under the condition that the normal advance speed was approximately 30 mm/min. Therefore，the ground settlement induced by tunneling could be fine controlled according to the order of the risk factors.

Key words： tunnelling engineering driving parameters advance speed greenfield sensitivity risk analysis

引用本文:

郑刚1，2，路平1，2，曹剑然1，2. 基于盾构机掘进参数对地表沉降影响敏感度的风险分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2015, 34(s1): 3604-3612.
ZHENG Gang1，2，LU Ping1，2，CAO Jianran1，2. RISK ANALYSIS BASED ON THE PARAMETERS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR GROUND SETTLEMENT INDUCED BY SHIELD TUNNELING. , 2015, 34(s1): 3604-3612.

链接本文:

http://www.rockmech.org/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.0236 或 http://www.rockmech.org/CN/Y2015/V34/Is1/3604

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