基于滑坡分类和加权频率比模型的滑坡易发性评价

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2018.0838

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摘要根据区域滑坡特点，针对不同类型滑坡的自身特征分别建立指标评价体系，能够使滑坡易发性评价的过程更加科学准确。以三峡库区万州区内滑坡为例，首先，基于对地质环境、滑坡空间分布及自身特征的分析，将全区滑坡分为陡倾角地层滑坡和缓倾角地层滑坡。其次，获取12种指标因子(高差、坡度、坡向、平面曲率、剖面曲率、地层岩性、水系、地质构造、公路、地层倾角、降雨、含蒙脱石软弱夹层厚度)构成基本评价体系。然后提出基于逻辑回归(logistic regression，LR)–模糊层次分析(fuzzy analytical hierarchy process，FAHP)方法(LR-FAHP)的加权频率比模型(weighted frequency ratio model，WFR)，通过对指标因子的重要性进行排序，实现各指标因子权重的定量计算，从而建立不同类型滑坡的评价指标体系，再基于GIS平台实现全区滑坡灾害的易发性等级预测。结果表明：与单一的LR，FAHP和FR三种模型相比，WFR模型能将滑坡易发性评价精度提升4%～9%，表明LR-FAHP是一种定量计算指标因子权重的有效方法；同时，基于滑坡分类的WFR模型的易发性评价成功率为79.2%，预测率为79.6%，均优于未进行滑坡分类的WFR模型，为建立评价指标体系和区域滑坡易发性评价提供了可靠途径。

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	郭子正1
	殷坤龙1
	黄发明2
	付圣3
	张文4

关键词 ：边坡工程, 滑坡易发性, 评价指标体系, 逻辑回归, 模糊层次分析, 加权频率比, GIS

Abstract：According to the regional landslide features，an evaluation index system developed based on the characteristics among different types of landslides，can make landslide susceptibility evaluation more scientific and accurate. Taking Wanzhou district of Three Gorges Reservoir as an example，the regional landslides were divided into steeply inclined strata landslides and gently inclined strata landslides based on geological situation，landslide spatial distribution and characteristics. Twelve index factors including elevation difference，slope angle，aspect，plane and profile curvatures，stratum lithology，water distribution，geological structure，highway，stratum dip，rainfall and weak interlayer containing montmorillonite were obtained to build the basic evaluation system，and a weighted frequency ratio model(WFR) was proposed to perform regional landslide susceptibility evaluation based on the logistic regression(LR)-fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP) method(LR-FAHP). A susceptibility evaluation index system for different kinds of landslides was built up by sorting the importance of all index factors and calculating their weights，and susceptibility level prediction of regional landslides was performed based on GIS platform. The results indicates that，compared with LR，FAHP and FR models，WFR model can promote the evaluation accuracy by 4%‐9%，proving that the LR-FAHP method is a good method for calculating the weight of evaluation index factors. It is also shown that the success rate and the prediction rate of susceptibility evaluation by WFR model with landslide classification reach 79.2% and 79.6% respectively，which are respectively better than those by WFR model without landslide classification. The model can provide a reliable approach for building up evaluation index system and regional landslide susceptibility.

Key words： slope engineering landslide susceptibility evaluation index system logistic regression fuzzy analytical hierarchy process weighted frequency ratio geographic information system(GIS)

引用本文:

郭子正1，殷坤龙1，黄发明2，付圣3，张文4. 基于滑坡分类和加权频率比模型的滑坡易发性评价[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2019, 38(2): 287-300.
GUO Zizheng1，YIN Kunlong1，HUANG Faming2，FU Sheng3，ZHANG Wen4. Evaluation of landslide susceptibility based on landslide classification and weighted frequency ratio model#br#. , 2019, 38(2): 287-300.

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http://www.rockmech.org/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2018.0838 或 http://www.rockmech.org/CN/Y2019/V38/I2/287

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