Abstract：Abstract：Prediction of ground movements and their surface effects is an important problem of the rock mass mechanics in the excavation activities，especially the ore mining in soft rock mining areas. Whether planned or accidental，such movements can cause considerable damage to structures located within the area of influence of underground mining works. Example is the recent subsidences that took place at the end of the 1990s in the Luzhong mining areas. A better understanding is necessary on how ground surface movements can be imparted to the supported structure and damages it. Based on the results of the statistical analysis of a large amount of measured data in mining engineering，the fundamental theoretical model of ground surface movements due to underground mining is established by using the theory of probability. The formulas of rock mass displacements and deformations are developed and applied to the prediction of the ground surface movements due to underground mining. The agreement of the theoretical results with the field measurements shows that the proposed model is satisfactory and the formulae obtained are valid；and thus can be effectively used for analyzing and predicting the ground surface movements due to underground mining in soft rock mining areas. The results show that the area of rock mass displacements and deformations in overlying strata will deteriorate with the increase in depth. The results can be used for safety assessment of shaft and the towers.
