摘要以现场实测资料为依据，将GM(1，1)灰色预测理论应用于桩顶位移预测。同时结合D. J. Varnes滑坡块体极慢速运动速率及有关载荷试验规范中变形稳定条件，提出了抗滑结构稳定的临界位移速率，进而依据桩顶位移的灰色预测方程及桩顶位移预测临界位移速率开展抗滑结构稳定时间预测，提出抗滑结构稳定时间的预测方法。
Abstract：On the basis of in-situ survey data，the displacement of anti-slide pile top is predicted using the gray prediction theories of GM (1，1) model. Furthermore，according to the definition of very slow speed of landslide by D. J. Varnes and the rule of deformation stability of in-situ loading test，the critical speed of anti-slide structure stability is put forward. Then，by combining the gray prediction equation of displacement of anti-slide pile top and the critical speed of anti-slide structure，the stability time of anti-slide structure is solved，and a new method for stability time prediction is set up for anti-slide structure.
