Abstract：The high-rise wood piled wharf in Qingdao harbor was constructed from 1901 to 1906. The deformation on the surface and quay wall of the wharf and bank caving happened between whiles. Five deep deformation monitoring holes were established in the typical segment of the wharf，and long-term observation for 247 days was carried out in order to understand the present state of wharf stability，forecast its further development，and design the suitable controlling sketch. The observation was conducted two times in one day at the high tide level and low tide level，respectively. The vertical spacing of measuring points is 0.5 m. According to the collected wharf displacement monitoring data，the developing procedure of wharf displacement with time and space is analyzed，and the speed and value of wharf displacement are quite different in the plain and the depth. The depth in which the maximum displacement appeares and the displacement-depth curves are varied gradually with time and space. The displacement curves of the wharf quay wall show‘～’shape in the plain. The depth in which the maximum displacement appeares is changed from 10 to 5 m，then to surface in the monitoring segment from hole cx1 to cx5. The speed and magnitude of wharf deformation are affected considerably by tide condition and wharf loading. The random time series model of Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA (p，d，q) is introduced for creating the dynamical prediction model IMA(0，1，1) of wharf displacement on the basis of the monitoring data. The effectiveness of the prediction model is checked with comparison of the predictive results and actual monitoring data，and the model is found to be reliable. The prediction result indicates that the high-rise wood piled wharf in Qingdao Harbur is in unstable situation，and reinforcement measures are required urgently.
