Abstract：Based on the failure phenomena and the distribution feature of strength probability from the uniaxial compressive strength test of rock，a new point of view is introduced that rockburst intensity reflects the probability of rock failure. The relation is established between rockburst intensity and probability distribution of uniaxial compressive strength of rock，and the formulas about the probability of different rockburst intensities under different stresses are obtained. This prediction model of rockburst intensity reflects the principal regularity of rockburst in tunnel and it can be applied to predict the probability of rockburst intensity of all levels under different stresses. A practical example shows that this prediction model is available.
