Abstract：Although there is a vast development of the calculation methods and techniques of groundwater numerical simulation，it has some limitations in theories and practicalities and needs to be further researched and resolved. Therefore，the groundwater modeling process is still permeated with all kinds of uncertain factors. It is one of the largest challenges in this research field to fully utilize and improve the technologies on hand to eliminate the modeling uncertainty，to promote the validity of the numerical simulation process and the reliability of the forecasted results. Based on the traditional groundwater numerical modeling，a new groundwater model to make direct predictions on the groundwater level changes caused by the local stress fluctuations is developed. The variation governing equations related to confined and unconfined aquifers have been developed. It is verified that the simulation process for confined aquifer is as the same as those of traditional numerical simulation process. Otherwise，it is only approximation for unconfined aquifer. The predicted error will be increased as long as the increase of the absolute value of net change. This study introduces an iteration scheme，which can improve the perturbation results. The proposed new modeling reduces the requirements of input data in the modeling processes，and it can also simplify the boundary conditions and，at the same time，introduce the iteration scheme in solving the governing equation. When putting the results into practical use，it will increase prediction accuracy. This research will bring potential contributions to the water resources management and provide guidance for design and construction of geotechnical engineering.
