基于蒙特卡罗法的崩塌涌浪分析方法

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摘要因目前国内外研究涌浪大多采用确定性的计算方法，忽视参数的随机性。故构建蒙特卡罗法求解崩塌涌浪的基本思想，并引入涌浪计算状态函数。以三峡库区箭穿洞危岩体为例，分析水深、崩塌体入水速度和崩塌体入水体积等随机变量的概率分布，利用蒙特卡罗法分析随机变量的敏感性及涌浪值的概率分布。研究结果显示，箭穿洞危岩体形成涌浪的计算变量敏感性强弱排序为入水速度、入水体积和水深；产生的涌浪值分布符合正态分布，其均值为7.02 m。产生涌浪红色预警区的概率为90.8%，建议对其进行治理，以降低涌浪风险。基于蒙特卡罗法的崩塌涌浪分析方法是今后涌浪研究的重要方向，可以更好地理解涌浪风险，并可用于水库地质灾害风险管理和航道风险管理中。

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关键词 ：边坡工程, 崩塌涌浪, 蒙特卡罗法, 敏感性分析, 概率分布, 箭穿洞危岩体

Abstract：The calculation of landslide impulse wave involves many parameters. Nowadays，impulse wave calculation adopts determinate algorithm at home and abroad，which ignores random character of parameters. Rockfall impulse wave analysis ideology and formula is built based on Monte Carlo method. Taking Jianchuandong dangerous rockmass in the Three Gorges Reservoir for example，probability of three random variables，which are water depth，the probability distribution of impulse celerity and immergence volume，are analyzed. On these bases，sensitivity sequence of random variables and impulse wave is analyzed. The results show that the sensitivity of random variables is impulse celerity，immergence volume，water depth；the impulse wave generated by Jianchuandong dangerous rockmass probability distribution are submitted to normal distribution，its mean is 7.02 m. The probability of generating red alarm impulse wave is 90.8%. Thus，it is strongly suggested to manage Jianchuandong rockmass as soon to reduce impulse wave risk. Impulse wave analysis method based on the Monte Carlo method is the trend in this field in the future，which can be used to understand impulse wave risk better，and be used to geohazard risk management in reservoirs and water-way safety risk management.

Key words： slope engineering rockfall impulse wave Monte Carlo method sensitivity analysis probability distribution Jianchuandong dangerous rockmass

收稿日期: 2012-01-13

引用本文:

黄波林1，2，陈小婷2，殷跃平1，3. 基于蒙特卡罗法的崩塌涌浪分析方法[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2012, 31(6): 1215-1221.
HUANG Bolin1，2，CHEN Xiaoting2，YIN Yueping1，3. ROCKFALL IMPULSE WAVE ANALYSIS METHOD BASED ON MONTE CARLO METHOD. , 2012, 31(6): 1215-1221.

链接本文:

http://www.rockmech.org/CN/Y2012/V31/I6/1215

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