(1. State Key Laboratory for Explosion and Impact and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation，PLA University of Science and Technology，Nanjing，Jiangsu 210007，China；2. College of Transportation and Engineering，Nanjing University of Technology，Nanjing，Jiangsu 210009，China；3. Research Center of Geotechnical and Structural Engineering，Shandong University，Jinan，Shangdong 250061，China)
Abstract：Slabbing failure is a major failure mode in deep salt rock underground gas storages. In order to research the risk level of the salt rock gas storage，a failure risk probability calculation method of the deep salt rock underground gas storage side falling was established based on the modified first-order second-moment method，according to the existing failure theory. Secondary development of the method was operated using ABAQUS platform in the part of UVARM，and the slabbing failure probability of the Jintan salt rock underground gas storage was calculated with this method. The failure probability under the low pressure operating conditions of a single storage was calculated，and multi-storage cavity failure probability caused by pressure loss of single cavern was also calculated. The results illustrate that，if the pressure of storage is higher than 6 MPa，failure probability would be less than the gas storage safety requirements. If the space of pillar is appropriate，individual cavern cavity loss pressure would cause little effect on the other cavern. The results are well in accordance with the practice of Jintan gas storage. It´s shown that this method has practical value in engineering application.
张 宁1，王明洋1，肖军华2，范鹏贤1，李 杰1，李术才3，张强勇3. 基于改进的一次二阶矩失效概率计算方法的深部盐岩地下储气库片帮风险模型及其应用[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2013, 32(s2): 3448-3454.
ZHANG Ning1，WANG Mingyang1，XIAO Junhua2，FAN Pengxian1，LI Jie1，LI Shucai3，ZHANG Qiangyong3. RESEARCH ON DEEP SALT ROCK UNDERGROUND GAS STORAGE SLABBING RISK BASED ON MOFM FAILURE PROBABILITY CALCULATION METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION. , 2013, 32(s2): 3448-3454.
2013, Vol. 32 
