降雨影响下的区域滑坡危险性动态评价研究——以三峡库区万州主城区为例

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2015.0495

摘要
图/表
参考文献
相关文章 (15)

全文: PDF (4008 KB) HTML (1 KB)
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

摘要降雨引发的滑坡具有区域性的群发效应，能够在短时间内造成大量的灾难性损失。基于此，提出一种可考虑不同降雨期影响的区域滑坡危险性评价方法。该方法以瞬态降雨入渗的区域斜坡稳定性计算模型为基础，将滑坡危险性定义为在一定持续降雨期内各栅格单元体失稳的概率。通过岩土体物理力学参数的不确定性进行各栅格单元体失稳概率的求解，继而获得区域内滑坡的危险性分布。基于ArcGIS软件开发出区域滑坡危险性动态评价工具。以三峡库区万州主城区为例，详细介绍危险性评价工具的数据处理过程以及参数选取方法，并以2种不同的降雨工况进行比较计算。现场斜坡稳定性的调查与计算结果的对比及统计分析表明：滑坡的危险性分布图与真实滑坡的稳定性情况基本一致，并在一定程度上反应了该地区斜坡稳定性的时空分布特征，测试并验证了评价工具的正确性。

	服务

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入我的书架
	加入引用管理器
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章

关键词 ：工程地质, 滑坡灾害, 确定性模型, 危险性评价

Abstract：The landslides induced by the rainfall have the characteristics of regional and multiple occurrence，which can cause great catastrophic losses in a short period of time. Thus，a method considering the effects of different rainfall periods to evaluate the regional landslide hazard was proposed. The grid-based regional slope-stability analysis model was based on the transient rainfall infiltration. The landslide hazard was defined as the probability of the instability of the each grid unit in a period of a certain duration. The uncertainty of the physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil was used to solve the instability probability of each grid unit. A regional landslide dynamic hazard assessment tool was developed based on the ArcGIS software. Wanzhou central district by Three Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing City was studied as an example using the hazard assessment tool with the comprehensive data processing procedure and parameter selection method. The calculated results under two different rainfall conditions were compared. Comparison and statistical analysis between the site investigation of slope stability and simulation results showed that the landslide hazard distribution was basically the same as the real slope stability status，which partly reflected the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of slope stability in the studied area and tested and verified the validity of the evaluation tool.

Key words： engineering geology landslide hazards deterministic model hazard evaluation

引用本文:

刘磊1，殷坤龙1，王佳佳1，张俊1，黄发明2. 降雨影响下的区域滑坡危险性动态评价研究——以三峡库区万州主城区为例[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2016, 35(3): 558-569.
LIU Lei1，YIN Kunlong1，WANG Jiajia1，ZHANG Jun1，HUANG Faming2. Dynamic evaluation of regional landslide hazard due to rainfall：a case study in Wanzhou central district，Three Gorges Reservoir . , 2016, 35(3): 558-569.

链接本文:

http://www.rockmech.org/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2015.0495 或 http://www.rockmech.org/CN/Y2016/V35/I3/558

[9]	LOW B K. Reliability analysis of rock slopes involving correlated nonnormals[J]. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences，2007，44(6)：922–935.
[10]	苏永华，赵明华，蒋德松，等. 响应面方法在边坡稳定可靠度分析中的应用[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2006，25(7)：1 417–1 424.(SU Yonghua，ZHAO Minghua，JIANG Desong，et al. Application of response surface method to reliability analysis of slope stability[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2006，25(7)：1 417–1 424.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[12]	IVERSON R M. Landslide triggering by rain infiltrarion[J]. Water Resources Research，2000，36(7)：1 897–1 910. " target="_blank">
[13]	SAVAGE W Z，GODT J W，BAUM R L. A model for spatially and temporally distributed shallow landslide initiation by rainfall infiltration[C]// Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation：Mechanics，Prediction and Assessment. Rotterdam：[s. n.]，2003：179–187. " target="_blank">
[14]	SAVAGE W Z，GODT J W，BAUM R L. Modeling time-dependent aerial slope stability[C]// Landslides—Evaluation and Stabilization， Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Landslides. London：[s. n.]，2004：23–36. " target="_blank">
[16]	SRIVASTAVA R，YEH T C J. Analytical solutions for one-dimensional， transient infiltration toward the water table in homogeneous and layered soils[J]. Water Resources Research，1997，27(5)：753–762. " target="_blank">
[1]	黄润秋. 20 世纪以来中国的大型滑坡及其发生机制[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2007，26(3)：433–455.(HUANG Runqiu. Large-scale landslides and their sliding mechanisms in china since the 20th century[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2007，26(3)：433–455.(in Chinese))
[2]	殷坤龙，简文星，汪洋，等. 三峡库区万州区近水平地层滑坡成因机制与防治工程研究[M]. 武汉：中国地质大学出版社，2007：25–34.(YIN Kunlong，JIAN Wenxing，WANG Yang，et al. The research of Three Gorges Reservoir in Wanzhou area of nearly horizontal strata landslide formation mechanism and control engineering[M]. Wuhan：China University of Geosciences Press，2007：25–34.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[3]	庄建琦，崔鹏，葛永刚. “5?12”汶川地震崩塌滑坡危险性评价——以都汶公路沿线为例[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2010，29(增2)：3 736–3 742.(ZHUANG Jianqi，CUI Peng，GE Yonggang. Risk assessment of collapses and landslides caused by 5?12 Wenchuan earthquake—a case study of Dujiangyan—Wenchuan highway[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2010，29(Supp.2)：3 736–3 742.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[4]	宋盛渊，王清，潘玉珍，等. 基于突变理论的滑坡危险性评价[J]. 岩土力学，2014，35(增2)：422–428.(SONG Shengyuan，WANG Qing，PAN Yuzhen，et al. Evaluation of landslides us ceptibility degree based on catastrophe theory[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics，2014，35(Supp.2)：422–428.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[6]	PACK R T，TARBOTON D G，GOODWIN C N. The SINMAP approach to terrain stability mapping[C]// The 8th Congress of the International Association of Engineering Geology. Vancouver：[s. n.]，1998：21–28. " target="_blank">
[7]	BAUM R L，SAVAGE W Z，GODT J W. TRIGRS：a Fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis，Version 2.0[R]. Colorado：US Department of the Interior and US Geological Survey，2010. " target="_blank">
[5]	MONTGOMERY D R，DIETRICH W E. A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding[J]. Water Resources Research，1994，30(4)：1 153–1 171. " target="_blank">
[8]	曾立峰，吴志坚，陈拓，等. 天水黄土地区覆盖层厚度的反演研究[J]. 岩土力学，2012，33(6)：1 912–1 917.(ZENG Lifeng，WU Zhijian，CHEN Tuo，et al. Inversing study of overburden thickness in loess area of Tianshui[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics，2012，33(6)：1 912– 1 917.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[11]	TAMIMI S，AMADEI B，FRANGOPOL D M. Monte Carlo simulation of rock slope reliability[J]. Computers and Structures，1989，33(6)：1 495–1 505. " target="_blank">
[15]	GARDNER W R. Some steady-state solutions of the unsaturated moisture flow equation with application to evaporation from a water table[J]. Soil Science，1958，85(4)：228–232. " target="_blank">
[17]	FELL R，COROMINAS J，BONNARD C，et al. Guidelines for landslide susceptibility，hazard and risk zoning for land-use planning[J]. Engineering Geology，2008，102(3)：99–111. " target="_blank">
[18]	殷坤龙，张桂荣，陈丽霞，等. 滑坡灾害风险分析[M]. 武汉：中国地质大学出版社，2010：5–10.(YIN Kunlong，ZHANG Guirong，CHEN Lixia，et al. Landslide hazard risk evaluation[M]. Wuhan： China University of Geosciences Press，2010：5–10.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[19]	刘雪梅. 三峡库区万州区地貌特征及滑坡演化过程研究[博士学位论文][D]. 武汉：中国地质大学，2010.(LIU Xuemei. A study on geomorgraphic character and landslide evolution in Wanzhou City，Three Gorges Reservoir[Ph. D. Thesis][D]. Wuhan：China University of Geosciences，2010.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[20]	JIA N，MITANI Y，XIE M，et al. Shallow landslide hazard assessment using a three-dimensional deterministic model in a mountainous area[J]. Computers and Geotechnics，2012，45(1)：1–10. " target="_blank">
[21]	杜娟. 单体滑坡灾害风险评价研究[博士学位论文][D]. 武汉：中国地质大学，2012.(DU juan. Risk assessment of individual landslide[Ph. D. Thesis][D]. Wuhan：China University of Geosciences，2012.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[22]	王志俭. 万州区红层岩土流变特性及近水平地层滑坡成因机理研究[博士学位论文][D]. 武汉：中国地质大学，2008.(WANG Zhijian. Rheological experimental study and mechanism research on gentle-dipped landslides of Jurassic red strata in Wanzhou city[Ph. D. Thesis][D]. Wuhan：China University of Geosciences，2008.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[23]	陈崇希，林敏，成建梅. 地下水动力学[M]. 5版. 北京：地质出版社，2011：100–110.(CHEN Chongxi，LIN Min，CHENG Jianmei. The groundwater dynamics[M]. 5th ed. Beijing：Geological Publishing House，2011：100–110.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">