堰塞坝稳定性评价方法及灾害链效应研究进展

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2017.1655

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摘要堰塞坝及其溃坝问题是当前的研究热点，因坝体形成过程特殊、组成材料不均、内部结构复杂且外部形态迥异，导致其与人工土石坝存在较大差异，目前仍缺乏有效的全寿命过程分析和可靠的稳定性快速评估方法。在全面综述堰塞坝形成条件、稳定性分析、溃坝机制及灾害链效应等国内外研究进展的基础上，通过案例汇编，建立含全球1 328例堰塞坝的大型数据库，探究堰塞坝的成因、触发因素、方量分布、形态特征、寿命规律及多参数间的内在关联性。进一步地，基于逻辑回归原理，建立坝长、坝宽及堰塞湖库容三参数预测模型，提出堰塞坝稳定性快速评估方法。最后，从灾害链的视角，指出当前研究存在的主要问题和下一步重点研究方向。研究表明：堰塞坝的方量、寿命和稳定性，与其触发因素和成因密切相关；提出的三参数快速评估方法，能够较准确地预测坝体稳定性；堰塞坝灾变全寿命过程模拟与预警系统开发是未来重点发展方向。研究结果为高山峡谷地区滑坡堵江灾害链预测、堰塞坝应急抢险地质处置及区域防灾减灾规划提供有益参考。

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	年廷凯1
	吴昊1
	陈光齐2
	郑德凤3
	张彦君1
	李东阳1

关键词 ：水利工程, 堰塞坝, 灾害链, 大型数据库, 坝体稳定性, 快速评估模型

Abstract：The issues of landslide dam and dam break are the focus of current research. Landslide dam is remarkably different from man-made earth-rockfill dam because of its special formation process，inhomogeneous material composition，complex internal structure and various geometrical shapes. Currently，there is still lack of in-depth research in the analysis of entire lifecycle and the reliable method to assess rapidly the stability of landslide dam. On the basis of systematical reviews of the forming conditions，stability analysis methods，overtopping and piping collapse mechanisms，dam break floods and geological disaster chain of landslide dams，a database which contains 1 328 cases of landslide dams is built according to the bibliography compilation. Then，the triggering factors，causes，volumes distribution，morphological characteristics and lifetime of landslide dams，and the relationships between them are analyzed. According to the principle of logistic regression，a prediction model with three parameters，the length and width of landslide dam and the reservoir capacity of barrier lake，is established，and a method to rapidly evaluate the stability of landslide dam is proposed. Finally，from the perspective of disaster chain，the main problems existing in current research and the future key development directions of the whole process of river-blocking disaster are pointed out. The research results indicate that the volumes，lifetime and stability of landslide dam are closely related to the triggering factors and causes of landslide dam. The three-parameter rapid assessment method predicts the stability of landslide dam accurately. The process simulation of the whole lifecycle and development of disaster warning system for landslide dam are the key development directions in the future.

Key words： hydraulic engineering landslide dam disaster chain large-scale database stability analysis rapid assessment model

引用本文:

年廷凯1，吴昊1，陈光齐2，郑德凤3，张彦君1，李东阳1. 堰塞坝稳定性评价方法及灾害链效应研究进展[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2018, 37(8): 1796-1812.
NIAN Tingkai1，WU Hao1，CHEN Guangqi2，ZHENG Defeng3，ZHANG Yanjun1，LI Dongyang1. Research progress on stability evaluation method and disaster chain effect of landslide dam. , 2018, 37(8): 1796-1812.

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http://www.rockmech.org/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2017.1655 或 http://www.rockmech.org/CN/Y2018/V37/I8/1796

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