Abstract：Based on uniaxial compression experiments of red sandstone and employing the digital speckle correlation method, this study investigates the variation trends of strain increment under uniaxial loading conditions through physical instability characterization of rock material failure, establishing a short-term imminent prediction method for red sandstone failure under uniaxial loading based on strain increment. The main conclusions are as follows：(1) Through physical instability analysis of rock material failure, a stress-strain increment expression for the complete rock loading failure process was established, categorizing the strain increment during rock loading failure into three distinct stages. (2) The threshold value for angular variation between deformation increment d? and stress increment d? was determined based on Poisson?s ratio parameter, with three statistical indicators of quantity, maximum value, and average value of measurement points exceeding the threshold all exhibiting fluctuating variation patterns, indicating the cyclic adjustment state of rock specimens during loading. (3) A temporal correlation between critical change node time and total failure time was established, achieving multi-stage prediction of rock loading failure time. (4) Delineated action boundary lines drawn based on the position, magnitude, and direction of threshold-exceeding measurement points at different times consistently appeared in proximity to rock failure cracks, demonstrating partial reflection of the development state of rock fracture propagation. (5) An energy prediction formula with adjustment coefficient K was developed, where K values range from 1.5 to 2.5.
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2025, Vol. 44 
