基于变形演化特征呷爬滑坡预测预警研究

doi:10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2024.0235

Abstract
Figure/Table
References (0)
Related Citation (15)

Download: PDF (3594 KB) HTML (1 KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract Reservoir landslides are a serious threat to the safe operation of the reservoir area and the lives and properties of the residents on river banks. The inducing factors and evolution features are both vital for the safety monitoring and control. In this study，considering the characteristics of high water level impoundment and large water level variation in the southwest reservoir area，the Gapa landslide in Jinping reservoir area is taken as an example. The landslide deformation characteristics has been revealed based on multi-source data such as GNSS，inclinometer and InSAR，then the prediction and warning model has also been established. The field monitoring results reveal that reservoir water impoundment has a strong interference effect and cyclic fluctuation has a cyclic perturbation effect on the deformation of this landslide，respectively. In terms of prediction，if the landslide is under a special assumption of future failure，the deformation trend of the landslide in the next fifteen years is deduced by the Verhurst inverse function using the GNSS time series. A more practical three-stage deformation damage curves of the landslide and displacement prediction results can be obtained. In terms of early warning，due to the significant influence of reservoir water on the landslide，the thresholds for water level and rate of water level change are determined. Based on Artificial neural network，they are 1 820 m and 0.4 m/d，respectively. According to this dual-threshold can test the GNSS data，the threshold of landslide rate for daily frequency warning is determined to be 4 mm/d. Finally，the dual-threshold for the reservoir water and the threshold for the displacement velocity are formed. The prediction and early warning results can provide a reference for the safety monitoring of large landslides in the reservoir area with high impoundment and large variation in water level.

Key words： slope engineering landslides reservoir water GNSS forecasting and the early warning deformation and evolution

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	WU Shuangshuang1
	2
	DONG Junli3

Cite this article:

WU Shuangshuang1,2,DONG Junli3. Forecasting and early warning of the Gapa landslide based on deformation and evolution characteristics#br#[J]. , 2025, 44(S1): 61-73.

URL:

https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2024.0235 OR https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2025/V44/IS1/61

[1]	张勤，白正伟，黄观文，等. GNSS滑坡监测预警技术进展[J]. 测绘学报，2022，51(10)：1 985-2 000.(ZHANG Qin，BAI Zhengwei，HUANG Guanwen，et al. Review of GNSS landslide monitoring and early warning[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica，2022，51(10)：1 985-2 000.(in Chinese))
[2]	ZHOU C，CAO Y，HU X，et al. Enhanced dynamic landslide hazard mapping using MT-InSAR method in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J]. Landslides，2022，19(7)：1 585-1 597.
[3]	CARLA T，TOFANI V，LOMBARDI L，et al. Combination of GNSS，satellite InSAR，and GBInSAR remote sensing monitoring to improve the understanding of a large landslide in high alpine environment[J]. Geomorphology，2019，335：62-75.
[4]	何满潮，任树林，陶志刚. 滑坡地质灾害牛顿力远程监测预警系统及工程应用[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2021，40(11)：2 161-2 172. (HE Manchao，REN Shulin，TAO Zhigang. Remote monitoring and forecasting system of Newton force for landslide geological hazards and its engineering application[J]. Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering，2021，40(11)：2 161-2 172.(in Chinese))
[5]	ZHANG L，ZHU H，HAN H. Fiber optic monitoring of an anti-slide pile in a retrogressive landslide[J]. Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering，2024，16(1)：333-343.
[6]	YAO W，LI C，ZUO Q，et al. Spatiotemporal deformation characteristics and triggering factors of Baijiabao landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir region，China[J]. Geomorphology，2019，343：34-47.
[7]	谭淋耘，黄润秋，裴向军. 库水位下降诱发的特大型顺层岩质滑坡变形特征与诱发机制[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2021，40(2)：302-314.(TAN Linyun，HUANG Runqiu，PEI Xiangjun. Deformation characteristics and inducing mechanisms of a super-large bedding rock landslide triggered by reservoir water level decline in Three Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering，2021，40(2)：302-314.(in Chinese))
[8]	WU S，HU X，ZHENG W，et al. Displacement behaviour and potential impulse waves of the Gapa landslide subjected to the Jinping Reservoir fluctuations in Southwest China[J]. Geomorphology，2022，397(15)：108013.
[9]	唐辉明，李长冬，龚文平，等. 滑坡演化的基本属性与研究途径[J]. 地球科学，2022，47(12)：4 596-4 608.(TANG Huiming，LI Changdong，GONG Wenping，et al. Fundamental attribute and research approach of landslide evolution[J]. Journal Earth Sciences-China，2022，47(12)：4 596-4 608.(in Chinese))
[10]	陈国庆，唐辉明，胡凯云，等. 基于非均质流变特性的滑坡时效演化及预警研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2022，41(9)：1 795-1 809. (CHEN Guoqing，TANG Huiming，HU Kaiyun，et al. Evolution characteristics and early warning of landslides based on heterogeneous rheological properties[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering，2022，41(9)：1 795-1 809.(in Chinese))
[11]	唐辉明. 重大滑坡预测预报研究进展与展望[J]. 地质科技通报，2022，41(6)：1-13.(TANG Huiming. Advance and prospect on prediction and forecasting of major landslides[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology，2022，41(6)：1-13.(in Chinese))
[12]	邢保印，张炜怡，章广成，等. 基于变形速率分解的阶跃型滑坡预测——以呷爬滑坡为例[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2023，42(3)：685-697.(XING Baoyin，ZHANG Weiyi，ZHANG Guangcheng，et al. Prediction of step landslide based on deformation rate decomposition：A case study of Gapa landslide[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering，2023，42(3)：685-697.(in Chinese))
[13]	邓李政，袁宏永，张鸣之，等. 滑坡变形监测预警技术研究进展. 清华大学学报：自然科学版，2022：1-16.(DENG Lizheng，YUAN Hongyong，ZHANG Mingzhi，et al. Research progress on landslide deformation monitoring and early warning technology[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University：Science and Technology，2022：1-16.(in Chinese))
[14]	HU X，WU S，ZHANG G，et al. Landslide displacement prediction using kinematics-based random forests method：A case study in Jinping Reservoir Area，China[J]. Engineering Geology，2021，283：105975.
[15]	BAO L，ZHANG G，HU X. Stage division of landslide deformation and prediction of critical sliding based on inverse logistic function[J]. Energies，2021，14(4)：1 091.
[16]	许强，曾裕平. 具有蠕变特点滑坡的加速度变化特征及临滑预警指标研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2009，25(6)：1 099-1 106.(XU Qaing，ZENG Yuping. Research on acceleration variation characteristics of creep landslide and early-warning prediction indicator of critical sliding[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2009，25(6)：1 099-1 106.(in Chinese))
[17]	许强. 对滑坡监测预警相关问题的认识与思考[J]. 工程地质学报，2020，28(2)：360-374.(XU Qiang. Understanding the landslide monitoring and early warning：Consideration to practical issues[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology，2020，28(2)：360-374.(in Chinese))
[18]	CRISS R E，YAO W，LI C，et al. A predictive，two-parameter model for the movement of reservoir landslides[J]. Journal Earth Sciences-China，2020，31(6)：5-11.
[19]	YIN Y P，HUANG B L，WANG W P，et al. Reservoir-induced landslides and risk control in Three Gorges Project on Yangtze River，China[J]. Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering，2016，8(5)：577-595.
[20]	WU S，HU X，ZHENG W，et al. Threshold definition for monitoring Gapa landslide under large variations in reservoir level using GNSS[J]. Remote Sensing，2021，13(24)：4 977.
[21]	吴爽爽，胡新丽，孙少锐，等. 间歇式滑坡变形力学机制与单体预警：案例研究[J]. 岩土力学，2023，44(增1)：593-602.(WU Shuangshuang，HU Xinli，SUN Shaorui，et al. Mechanism for intermittent deformation and early warning at slope-scale of landslides：A case study[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics，2023，44(Supp.1)：593-602.(in Chinese))
[22]	吴爽爽. 水位大变幅条件下呷爬滑坡变形演化特征与预测预警方法研究[博士学位论文][D]. 武汉：中国地质大学，2022.(WU Shuangshuang. The deformation characteristics，the methods for prediction and early warning of the Gapa Landslide under large variations in reservoir level[Ph. D. Thesis][D]. Wuhan：China University of Geosciences，2022.(in Chinese))
[23]	TANG H，WASOWSKI J，JUANG C. Geohazards in the three Gorges Reservoir Area，China-Lessons learned from decades of research[J]. Engineering Geology，2019，261：105267.
[24]	李聪，朱杰兵，汪斌，等. 滑坡不同变形阶段演化规律与变形速率预警判据研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2016，35(7)：1 407-1 414.(LI Cong，ZHU Jiebing，WANG Bin，et al. Critical deformation velocity of landslides in different deformation phases[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering，2016，35(7)：1 407-1 414.(in Chinese))