基于双因子优化Newmark模型的地震滑坡危险性研究——以强震山区九寨沟为例

doi:10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2025.0985

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Abstract Jiuzhaigou is located in the central segment of China′s North-South Seismic Belt, an area characterized by dense faults and intense tectonic activity, making it a typical high-risk mountainous region susceptible to strong earthquakes. Conducting high-precision back-analysis of historical earthquake-induced landslide (EQIL) hazards and predicting potential EQILs in this region can provide a scientific basis for pre-earthquake risk prevention and post-earthquake emergency response. Using the 2017 Ms 7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake as a case study, the spatial patterns of EQILs through detailed field investigations and interpretation of multi-source remote sensing images were analyzed systematically. To address the limitations of the traditional Newmark model in characterizing key parameters, we integrated the spatial heterogeneity of geotechnical strength due to fault perturbations and the topographic amplification effects of ground motion parameters to develop a dual-factor optimized Newmark displacement model. Validation results using actual landslide data from the Jiuzhaigou Ms 7.0 earthquake demonstrated that the accuracy (AUC = 0.827) and spatial rationality of the optimized model significantly surpass those of the traditional method (AUC = 0.738). Moreover, by incorporating ground motion parameters from seven historical earthquakes since the 20th century and the peak ground acceleration data corresponding to a 10% exceedance probability over 50 years, as specified in the fifth-generation ground motion zonation map of China, the back-analysis and prediction of landslide susceptibility under multiple seismic scenarios were conducted. This revealed that the spatial distribution of EQILs is jointly influenced by ground motion, topography, and geology. The comprehensive evaluation method for seismic landslide hazards proposed in this study is designed for the complex environment of mountainous areas prone to strong earthquakes and can provide scientific and technological support for geological disaster risk management and the safety of major engineering projects in Jiuzhaigou and similar regions along the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Key words： slope engineering seismic landslide hazard strong earthquake mountainous area Newmark model fault perturbation topographic amplification effect

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	Articles by authors
	LUO Luguang1
	PEI Xiangjun2*
	LU Yulong1
	ZHU Ling3
	CUI Shenghua2
	XIAO Yongjun1
	LIANG Yufei2

Cite this article:

LUO Luguang1,PEI Xiangjun2*,LU Yulong1, et al. Seismic landslide hazard based on the dual-factor optimized Newmark model: A case study of Jiuzhaigou in strong earthquake mountainous area[J]. , 2026, 45(9): 2731-2748.

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https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2025.0985 OR https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2026/V45/I9/2731

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