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Abstract A new determination warning method for progressive failure propagation of sliding zone on talus landslide is proposed. The new method is able to quantitatively forecast the whole process of sliding failure propagation，including direction and velocity of sliding failure propagation，the corresponding date of the sliding failure，as well as the extent of landslide failure. Firstly，the properties of failure propagation for single-point failure，linear failure and planar failure on sliding zone are systematically presented. The complete relative deformation-time process curves on single-point failure propagation under shearing load are obtained. The curves mentioned above are similar to complete stress-strain process curves obtained with stiff and servo-controled loading testing machine. It is discovered that sliding failure is at the beginning of bottom wall，and then successively from bottom wall up to top wall in vertical direction，and from front to back side of landslide in horizontal direction. Secondly，those mechanisms of failure propagation properties are illustrated mainly in four respects，including stratification of sliding zone，lithological character of formations，mechanical properties of formations，and general principles of rock mechanics. Thirdly，according to those mechanisms，a new quantitative warningmethod(PFPW) is established，which is based on the analysis of relative deformation process curves on sliding zone. The standard of the failure is peak value of change curves of relative deformation and time. The objective of warning is to forecast each failure phase for progressive failure propagation. Based on the results，it is convenient to forecast the date，position and extent of failure，as well as velocity of propagation.
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Received: 19 May 2009
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