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Abstract In view of characteristics of coal mine water-inrush from floor containing a lot of uncertain factors and time-location randomness，the multi-attribute decision-making theory in the prediction of water-inrush from floor applied research is explored. With case statistics and expert analysis，the weights are governed to the factors which affect water-inrush from floor. The fusion rule is established for water-inrush probability ratio，and a new method of water-inrush probability ratio is put forward for water-inrush from floor. It provides a technique for decision- making water-inrush from floor with water-inrush probability ratio. Based on the D-S evidence theory，the frame of discernment including water-inrush，critical condition，no water-inrush and uncertain information，is proposed and the water-inrush integration decision-making model is established considering aquifer water-bearing ratio，structure ratio，water-resisting layer thickness ratio，underground water pressure ratio and underground pressure ratio as evidences. With the practical application examples in Feicheng coal field，it shows that the degree of confidence of water-inrush probability can be improved and indeterminacy is reduced by several times of information fusion，and the validity and feasibility of proposed model are proved.
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Received: 22 September 2008
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