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Abstract The salt rock caves used for gas storages in Jintan salt mine are the important auxiliary engineering of West-East Gas Transmission. It¢s used for gas peak shaving and ensures the safety of supplying gas in the Yangtze River Delta. The accurately predicting the surface subsidence is the important method for ensuring the safety of the gas storages. Based on the rule of the transferring if one terrane by one terrane，the surface subsidence caused by the shrinking of salt rock caves in 20 years and the surface subsidence caused by the collapse of salt rock caves are predicted by the new probability integral 3D model. Then the time factor of the surface subsidence of the Jintan salt mine is obtained by the dynamic forecasting model and the surface subsidence can be achieved. The predicted value is very close to the measurement value，which proves that the transfer model has more forecasting precision.
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Received: 20 March 2009
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