基于时间序列分析的滑坡位移预测模型研究

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Abstract Based on the displacement monitoring data and displacement evolution of landslide，total displacement can be divided into trend term displacement which is controlled by its own geological conditions and periodic term displacement affected by external factors such as rainfall，water level changes，and so on. Then the displacement prediction model of landslide can be established by time series analysis. Double moving average method is used to separate the trend term displacement and periodic term displacement of landslide. On this basis，GM(1，1) grey model is used to forecast the trend term displacement；and autoregressive(AR) model is used to forecast the periodic term displacement. Total displacement is obtained by adding the calculated predictive displacement value of each sub-stack. Taking Bazimen landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area for example，it is shown that the result could better reflect the development trend of landslide under external factors，based on the comparative analysis of the measured and predicted displacement-time curves. The results demonstrate that the established landslide displacement prediction model is feasible and effective in the landslide displacement prediction.

Key words： slope engineering;landslide;displacement prediction;time series;GM(1 1) grey model;autoregressive(AR) model

Received: 03 December 2010

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https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2011/V30/I4/746

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