基于蒙特卡罗法的崩塌涌浪分析方法

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Abstract The calculation of landslide impulse wave involves many parameters. Nowadays，impulse wave calculation adopts determinate algorithm at home and abroad，which ignores random character of parameters. Rockfall impulse wave analysis ideology and formula is built based on Monte Carlo method. Taking Jianchuandong dangerous rockmass in the Three Gorges Reservoir for example，probability of three random variables，which are water depth，the probability distribution of impulse celerity and immergence volume，are analyzed. On these bases，sensitivity sequence of random variables and impulse wave is analyzed. The results show that the sensitivity of random variables is impulse celerity，immergence volume，water depth；the impulse wave generated by Jianchuandong dangerous rockmass probability distribution are submitted to normal distribution，its mean is 7.02 m. The probability of generating red alarm impulse wave is 90.8%. Thus，it is strongly suggested to manage Jianchuandong rockmass as soon to reduce impulse wave risk. Impulse wave analysis method based on the Monte Carlo method is the trend in this field in the future，which can be used to understand impulse wave risk better，and be used to geohazard risk management in reservoirs and water-way safety risk management.

Key words： slope engineering rockfall impulse wave Monte Carlo method sensitivity analysis probability distribution Jianchuandong dangerous rockmass

Received: 13 January 2012

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http://www.rockmech.org/EN/Y2012/V31/I6/1215

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