基于改进灰色–时序分析时变模型的边坡位移预测

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.s2.049

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Abstract Cause and evolution law of the displacement of slope are very important for the evaluation of the stability of slope. Based on fuzzy uncertainty and random uncertainty and a certain regularity of deformation parameters，improved grey-time series time-varying prediction model，in which grey theory and traditional time series analysis method are combined，is established on gray model by double smoothing correction. Improved GM(1，1) is utilized to extract the trend term of the displacement of slope. After the extraction，the displacement time series becomes a stable series，which could be processed by ARMA or AR model. According to the detect data update，the model parameters are continuously modified of equal intervals in accordance with real-time tracing algorithm. As a test，the prediction model is used in inlet slope engineering of Huangjinping hydropower station and left abutment slope engineering of Changheba hydropower station. The model test show that relative error between predicted and measured value is mainly less than 5%. The model is of high precision and is of great significance to understand the development trend of the displacement of slope and study the dynamic stability of slope.

Key words： slope engineering displacement double smoothing correction prediction improved grey-time series analysis

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	Articles by authors
	ZHANG Zhenghu1
	2
	YUAN Mengke1
	2
	DENG Jianhui1
	2
	XUE Shouning3

Cite this article:

ZHANG Zhenghu1,2,YUAN Mengke1, et al. DISPLACEMENT PREDICTION OF SLOPE BASED ON IMPROVED GREY-TIME SERIES TIME-VARYING MODEL[J]. , 2014, 33(S2): 3791-3797.

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https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.s2.049 OR https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2014/V33/IS2/3791

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