非等距时间序列模型在隧道拱顶位移预测中的应用

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.s2.087

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Abstract Based on the non-equidistant and non-stationary time series data in practical engineering，total displacement can be divided into trend term displacement and stochastic term displacement. The displacement prediction model of tunnel wall rock can be established by time series analysis. Cubic-spline interpolation method is used to process the non-equidistant time series data. On this basis，GM(1，1) grey model is used to forecast the trend term displacement，and autoregressive model is used to forecast the stochastic term displacement. Total displacement is obtained by adding the calculated predictive displacement value of each term. Taking Huayingshan tunnel for example，it is shown that the result could better reflect the development trend of vault crown settlement displacement value based on the comparative analysis of measured and predicted displacement-time curves. Results demonstrate that the established non-equidistant and non-stationary time series decomposition model is feasible and effective in the wall rock displacement prediction of practical tunnel engineering.

Key words： tunnelling engineering displacement prediction time series non-equidistant cubic-spline interpolation

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	HE Yabo
	LIANG Cheng

Cite this article:

HE Yabo,LIANG Cheng. A NON-EQUIDISTANT TIME SERIES MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION IN TUNNEL VAULT CROWN DISPLACEMENT PREDICTION[J]. , 2014, 33(S2): 4096-4101.

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https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.s2.087 OR https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2014/V33/IS2/4096

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