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Abstract A function describing the performance of tunnel lining with the protection of rock bolts and shotcrete was derived based on the theory of build-up arches and the failure model of shear slip. Because of the high nonlinear and implicit characteristics of the function and the correlation between the basic parameters，the reliability was difficult to be obtained. In order to eliminate the influence of the correlation between the basic parameters，the semi analytical Nataf transform was introduced，and thus the original random variables were converted into the standard normal space. According to the point estimate method，the moment estimation formula of the performance function was established on the statistical characteristics of basic random variables. According to the relationship between the statistical moment and variables，the probability density function was derived based on the maximum entropy principle with the constraint of the first four moments of the performance function. A one-dimensional numerical integral method of reliability analysis was then developed for structural stability of tunnel lining consisting of rock bolts and shotcrete based on build-up arch theory. The accuracy of the proposed approach was verified using a numerical example，and the reliability analysis for Jingzhushan highway tunnel was conducted.
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2015, Vol. 34 
