岩土参数最优概率分布推断方法及判别准则的研究

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2015.1616

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Abstract In order to obtain the optimal probability distribution of geotechnical parameters，the non-negative characteristics of the parameter values was firstly considered and an integral distribution interval standard was determined，which was based on the“ ”principle and adjusted according to the skewness of sample data. The probability distribution functions of five groups of typical geotechnical parameters were inferred by using the typical distribution fitting method(TDF method)，the maximum entropy method(ME method)，the general polynomial approximation method(GP method)，the orthogonal polynomial approximation method(OP method) and the normal information diffusion method(NID method). The Kolmogorov-Smirov testing method was used to assess the availability of those methods above. The availability of the probability distribution functions obtained with five methods were compared according to the testing values，the cumulative probability and the fitting function curves. The results show that the test values of four methods are generally lower than that of TDF method. And those four methods can overcome the shortcomings of the distribution with a single peak, reflect the fluctuation of the actual data distribution and meet the conditions that the cumulative value of probability is equal to 1. However，the test value of ME method is sometimes larger than that of TDF method，and the value of PDF at local distribution interval of distribution data will be less than zero for GP and OP methods. In contrast，the test value of NID method is the lowest and the cumulative probability value is always 1，and the fitting accuracy is the highest among all those methods. Finally，the criterion for judging the optimal probability distribution of geotechnical parameters is given.

Key words： rock and soil mechanics geotechnical parameters reliability analysis probability distribution function stochastic volatility fitting method normal information diffusion method

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	GONG Fengqiang1
	2
	HUANG Tianlang1
	LI Xibing1
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Cite this article:

GONG Fengqiang1,2,HUANG Tianlang1, et al. Research on approximation method and discriminative criterion of the optimal probability distribution of geotechnical parameters[J]. , 2016, 35(12): 2452-2460.

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http://rockmech.org/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2015.1616 OR http://rockmech.org/EN/Y2016/V35/I12/2452

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