降雨影响下的区域滑坡危险性动态评价研究——以三峡库区万州主城区为例

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2015.0495

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Abstract The landslides induced by the rainfall have the characteristics of regional and multiple occurrence，which can cause great catastrophic losses in a short period of time. Thus，a method considering the effects of different rainfall periods to evaluate the regional landslide hazard was proposed. The grid-based regional slope-stability analysis model was based on the transient rainfall infiltration. The landslide hazard was defined as the probability of the instability of the each grid unit in a period of a certain duration. The uncertainty of the physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil was used to solve the instability probability of each grid unit. A regional landslide dynamic hazard assessment tool was developed based on the ArcGIS software. Wanzhou central district by Three Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing City was studied as an example using the hazard assessment tool with the comprehensive data processing procedure and parameter selection method. The calculated results under two different rainfall conditions were compared. Comparison and statistical analysis between the site investigation of slope stability and simulation results showed that the landslide hazard distribution was basically the same as the real slope stability status，which partly reflected the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of slope stability in the studied area and tested and verified the validity of the evaluation tool.

Key words： engineering geology landslide hazards deterministic model hazard evaluation

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http://www.rockmech.org/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2015.0495 OR http://www.rockmech.org/EN/Y2016/V35/I3/558

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