概率性地震滑坡危险性区划方法及其应用

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2015.0118

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Abstract Earthquake is a random process. Recent landslide hazard analyses were carried out based on ground motions with given probability of exceedance，ignoring the impact of some potential earthquakes，representing a conditional probability of earthquake induced landslides. This paper presents a new method for potential seismic landslide hazard zonation at regional scale in terms of landslide probability. It is based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and Newmark’s displacement model，incorporating the effects of focal mechanism，site condition and topography. We applied this method to Tianshui study area and generated a regional seismic landslide probability hazard map in 50 years，combining the potential seismic source zones which were used for the new generation seismic zonation map of China，empirical engineering geology lithology formations，and topographic slop data. The results show that the high hazard zones mainly concentrated at the loess or mudstone areas with slope greater than 30 degree，especially on the banks of Wei River，Xi River and Niutou Revier，posing a threat to Longhai Railway line and the surrounding of Tianshui city.

Key words： slope engineering seismic landslide hazard zonation Newmarks model

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	Articles by authors
	LIU Jiamei1
	GAO Mengtan1
	WU Shuren2

Cite this article:

LIU Jiamei1,GAO Mengtan1,WU Shuren2. Probabilistic seismic landslide hazard zonation method and its application[J]. , 2016, 35(S1): 3100-3110.

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https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2015.0118 OR https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2016/V35/IS1/3100

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