在役心墙堆石坝非概率可靠度评估与预警方法

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2020.0964

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Abstract The core-wall rockfill dam is an uncertain system affected by many complicated factors. It is of great significance to research the evaluation and early warning method of the service reliability of core-wall rockfill dams from the point of uncertainty for the scientific evaluation of the safe state of the dams in service and the improvement of dam risk management level. Lack of data on some uncertain parameters and dependence of the probability distribution functions on experience make the traditional probability reliability evaluation approaches difficult to be applied. The analytical method of non-probabilistic reliability is applied to the analysis of the service state of the core-wall rockfill dams，and a non-probabilistic reliability calculation model of the core-wall rockfill dams based on dimension proportional factors is constructed after probing into the representation model of uncertain parameters. A method for formulating the deformation safety multi-point comprehensive early warning index of the core-wall rockfill dams is presented based on non-probabilistic reliability，which combines with the grading standard of the non-probabilistic target reliability index. The reliability of a core-wall rockfill dam in service is evaluated and the multi-point comprehensive early warning index of deformation safety is developed by using the developed method. An engineering example shows that it is feasible to apply the non-probabilistic reliability evaluation and safety early warning method to the deformation safety analysis of the core-wall rockfill dams.

Key words： hydraulic engineering core-wall rockfill dam reliability in service non-probabilistic calculation model safety early warning index

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	Articles by authors
	SU Huaizhi1
	2
	LI Jiatian2
	3

Cite this article:

SU Huaizhi1,2,LI Jiatian2, et al. Non-probabilistic reliability evaluation and safety early warning method for core-wall rockfill dams in service[J]. , 2021, 40(12): 2526-2534.

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http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2020.0964 OR http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2021/V40/I12/2526

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