用于边坡变形分析与预测的PSO-Prophet模型

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2020.0741

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Abstract The PSO-Prophet model for slope deformation analysis and prediction is constructed to solve the problems of highly uncertainty of periodic term extraction and the increasing complexity of combination forecasting model. The Prophet model，with the function of time series decomposition and combination prediction，is introduced to deal with the slope deformation signal. What?s more，the PSO algorithm is used to optimized the parameters to improve the adaptability and prediction accuracy of the model. The prediction experiments of slope monitoring points are carried out，and the prediction accuracy of PSO-Prophet model is 46% higher than Prophet model in the original unequal interval time series. In the combination prediction of equal interval time series after interpolation，the root-mean-square errors of the PSO-Prophet model，the S-GSSVR model，the HP-ARIMA-LSTM model and SSA-Verhulst-FS model are 4.7，9.6，13.2 and 12.0 mm respectively. The experimental results show that the PSO-Prophet model has a simple process and higher prediction accuracy for slope deformation time series greatly affected by periodic term.

Key words： slope engineering analysis of slope deformation periodic term extraction combination forecast prophet model particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm

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	Articles by authors
	WANG Zhiying1
	LI Zongchun1
	XU Wenxue2

Cite this article:

WANG Zhiying1,LI Zongchun1,XU Wenxue2. PSO-Prophet model for slope deformation analysis and prediction[J]. , 2021, 40(S1): 2643-2652.

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https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2020.0741 OR https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2021/V40/IS1/2643

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