岩石破坏短临预报研究进展——岩石破坏短临预报竞赛评述

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2022.0783

Abstract
Figure/Table
References (0)
Related Citation (15)

Download: PDF (1325 KB) HTML (1 KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract The prediction of major natural and engineering disasters in the rock mass system such as earthquakes，landslides，rock burst and gas outburst is a major problem far from being solved by mankind. The short-term prediction of rock failure is its key scientific problem. The purpose of carrying out the short-term prediction competition of rock failure will not only stimulate the creation and innovation inspiration of scholars in multiple fields but also will promote the innovation and rapid development of instability destruction monitoring prediction theory，methods，technologies and instruments in rock and rock mass. In this paper，a detailed description of the first and second short-term competitions of rock failure is provided，including competition rules，scoring indexes consisting of prediction time，energy and location of damage，forecast theory，methods and test instruments used by each participating team，and final forecast results. At the same time，the latest theories and methods adopted by the participating teams regarding rock destruction prediction research，as well as the advantages and disadvantages of test instruments and the development direction of future research are comparatively analyzed. The results of the two competitions show that the theory，methods，and testing instruments of nonlinear rock mass mechanics- disaster rock mass mechanics，which are at the core of the destruction short clinical predictions，are still at an elementary level.

Key words： rock mechanics rock failure short-impending prediction nonlinear competition

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	FENG Zengchao
	LV Zhaoxing
	ZHAO Yangsheng

Cite this article:

FENG Zengchao,LV Zhaoxing,ZHAO Yangsheng. Research progress on short-impending prediction of rock failure——Comments on the competition of short-impending prediction of rock failure[J]. , 2022, 41(12): 2522-2529.

URL:

http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2022.0783 OR http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2022/V41/I12/2522

[5]	李赞，刘瑞丰，孔韩东，等. 中强地震能量震级测定[J]. 地震学报，2019，41(3)：289–301.(LI Zhan，LIU Ruifeng，KONG Handong，et al. Energy magnitude determination of moderate-strong earthquakes[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica，2019，41(3)：289–301.(in Chinese))
[8]	彭俊，蔡明，荣冠，等，裂纹闭合应力及其岩石微裂纹损伤评价[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2015，34(6)：1 091–1 100.(PENG Jun，CAI Ming，RONG Guan，et al. Stresses for crack closure and its application to assessing stress-induced microcrack damage[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2015，34(6)：1 091– 1 100.(in Chinese))
[2]	STUART Crampin. 王生文(译). 对国际地震预报委员会(民防)“可操作性地震预报”报告的评论[J]. 国际地震动态，2013，(6)：7–14.(STUART Crampin. WANG S W ed. Comments on the “operational earthquake prediction”report of the international commission on earthquake prediction(civil defense)[J]. Recent Developments in World Seismology，2013，(6)：7–14.(in Chinese))
[4]	赵阳升. 岩体力学发展的一些回顾与若干未解之百年问题[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2021，40(7)：1 297–1 336.(ZHAO Yangsheng. Retrospection on the development of rock mass mechanics and the summary of some unsolved centennial problems[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2021，40(7)：1 297–1 336.(in Chinese))
[6]	ZHAO G F. Developing a four-dimensional lattice spring model for mechanical responses of solids[J]. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering，2017，315：881–895.
[9]	马少鹏，周辉. 岩石破坏过程中试件表面应变场演化特征研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2008，27(8)：1 667–1 673.(MA Shaopeng，ZHOU Hui. Surface strain field evolution of rock specimen during failure process[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2008，27(8)：1 667–1 673.(in Chinese))
[11]	谭志宏，唐春安，朱万成，等. 含缺陷花岗岩破坏过程中的红外热像试验研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2005，24(16)：2 977–2 981. (TAN Zhihong，TANG Chun?an，ZHU Wancheng，et al. Experimental study on infrared thermal image for failure process of granite with fracture[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2005，24(16)：2 977–2 981.(in Chinese))
[13]	彭自正，王殚业，许云廷，等. 逾渗与岩石破裂的计算机模拟研究[J]. 西北地震学报，1996，(1)：22–28.(PENG Zizheng，WANG Chanye，XU Yunting，et al. Computer simulation of percolation and rock fracture[J]. Northwestern Seismological Journal，1996，(1)：22–28.(in Chinese))
[15]	李东升，陆远忠. 混沌理论与地震预报研究探讨[J]. 地震，1993，(6)：29–34.(LI Dongsheng，LU Yuanzhong. Discussion on chaotic theory and earthquake prediction research[J]. Earthquake，1993，(6)：29–34.(in Chinese))
[1]	JORDAN T H，CHEN Y T，GASPARINI P，et a1. Operational earthquake forecasting：state of knowledge and guidelines for utilization[J]. Annals of Geophysics，2011，54(4)：315–391.
[3]	白以龙. 固体的破坏[C]// 21世纪100个科学难题. 长春：吉林人民出版社，1998：62–67.(BAI Yilong. Destruction of solids[C]// 100 Scientific Problems in the 21st Century. Changchun：Jilin People's Publishing House，1998：62–67.(in Chinese))
[7]	ZHAO G F，DENG Z Q，ZHANG B. Multibody failure criterion for the four-dimensional lattice spring model[J]. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences，2019，123：104126.
[10]	SHEN Y X，FENG Z C. Study on precursor information of rock instability based on displacement increments measured at multiple points[J]. Natural Hazards，2022，113：1 713–1 727.
[12]	吴忠良. 逾渗模型的地震学含义[J]. 地球物理学进展，1992，(4)：38–45.(WU Zhongliang. Percolation model：its seismological significance[J]. Advances in Geophysics，1992，(4)：38–45.(in Chinese))
[14]	李晓照，戚承志，邵珠山. 脆性岩石局部细观裂纹成核损伤突变机制研究[J]. 中国科学：技术科学，2021，51：480–492.(LI Xiaozhao，QI Chengzhi，SHAO Zhushan. Research on mechanisms of the damage catastrophe from localized microcrack nucleation in brittle rocks[J]. Scientia Sinica Technologica，2021，51：480–492.(in Chinese))
[16]	FENG Z J，ZHAO Y S，FENG Z C. Indeterminacy of displacement and stress of geologic rock mass system in the critically non?stationary state：implication on prediction of geo?hazards[J]. Natural Hazards，2021，107：1 105–1 124.