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| Comprehensive regional-scale early warning of water-induced landslides in reservoir areas based on landslide susceptibility assessment |
| WANG Wei1，2，YUAN Wenyu1，2，ZOU Lifang3，CHEN Hongjie4，CHENG Rushuai4，XU Weiya1，2 |
| (1. Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Geomechanics and Embankment Engineering，Hohai University，Nanjing，Jiangsu 210024，China；2. Institute of Geotechnical Engineering，Hohai University，Nanjing，Jiangsu 210024，China；3. School of Earth Science and Engineering，Hohai University，Nanjing，Jiangsu 211100，China；4. Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc.，Kunming，Yunnan 650214，China) |
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Abstract The buffer zone within 2 km away from the main stream of a certain river in the HD and DHQ reservoirs，is taken as the research region to study the regional-scale early warning of water-induced landslides in the reservoir area. The preliminary landslide susceptibility factors in the research region are analyzed and screened through the chi-square test and the multicollinearity analysis. A final index system of landslide susceptibility in the research region is obtained，and landslide susceptibility assessment models are constructed based on different machine learning algorithms. The results show that the model based on random forest has the best accuracy of 98.00%. This model is applied to the whole research region and the landslide susceptibility mapping is completed. Besides，the rainfall and the reservoir water level，two main hydrodynamic inducing factors，are considered as early warning indicators and analyzed based on historical landslide data and monitoring data，and five early warning levels are put forward. Then a comprehensive water-induced landslide early warning model based on landslide susceptibility is established. The early warning zoning map of the research region on December 23，2019 is obtained，and the early warning zoning map under the assumed most unfavorable conditions is also proposed based on the rainfall and the reservoir water level conditions of the research region in the past five years.
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2022, Vol. 41 
