降雨诱发浅层滑坡危险性的快速评估模型及应用

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2022.0605

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Abstract The existing deterministic models that can consider rainfall effects have disadvantages such as high computational cost and inability to solve the uncertainty of geotechnical parameters when assessing regional-scale landslide hazard. To address this problem，the fast shallow landslide assessment model(FSLAM) was proposed，which can be used for rapid assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard. The FSLAM model can consider both antecedent effective and event rainfall conditions to calculate slope groundwater and stochastic parameters were used in the model to calculate probability of failure to reflect landslide hazard. A homogeneous slope was used to do sensitivity analysis of parameters of the model. The results showed that soil cohesion，friction angle，and vegetation root cohesion were the most important input parameters of the model. The engineering application of the FSLAM model for regional landslide hazard assessment was carried out by taking the landslides induced by typhoon Megi in Wenzhou City of Zhejiang Province in 2016 as an example. The analysis results indicated that the FSLAM model can accurately capture the effect of rainfall on the probability of failure of shallow landslides，and the accuracy of receiver operating characteristic curve reached 76.4%. The model can effectively reduce the uncertainty of geotechnical parameters and improve the accuracy by using stochastic parameters. Since the simplified SCS-CN method was used to calculate the vertical flow of groundwater instead of the complex Richards equation，the computational efficiency at the regional scale of the FSLAM model is 25 times better than the TRIGRS model，and the accuracy of the TRIGRS was only 69.8%.

Key words： slope engineering rainfall shallow landslides deterministic model hazard assessment stochastic parameters probability of failure

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	Articles by authors
	GUO Zizheng1
	HE Jun1
	HUANG Da1
	ZHOU Yongqiang2
	ZHU Yuhang3

Cite this article:

GUO Zizheng1,HE Jun1,HUANG Da1, et al. Fast assessment model for rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard and application[J]. , 2023, 42(5): 1188-1201.

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http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2022.0605 OR http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2023/V42/I5/1188

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