考虑物理模型与有效降雨入渗的滑坡危险性预测框架—以青藏高原山南市雅鲁藏布江流域为例

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2023.0326

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Abstract Landslide hazard assessment is an important step in disaster prevention and mitigation in mountainous areas. However，most of the previous studies focused on the risk analysis at the current stage，and there are very few effective methods for landslide risk prediction on a regional scale. Aiming at this problem，this study proposed a new framework by considering physical model and effective rainfall infiltration to predict the landslide hazard under the condition of a given rainfall return period in the future for the first time. Taking the Yarlung Zangbo River catchment in Shannan City of the Tibetan Plateau as an example，the average effective infiltration rate and the previous effective rainfall Pa from 1998 to 2017 were calculated by using the Easy_Balance software. The 95% quantile of the maximum rainfall for three consecutive days in each month in summer was used as the critical rainfall Pe，and the calibration of soil parameters and land use parameters was completed based on the physical model FSLAM. The extreme values of Pa and Pe at different return periods were obtained using the Gumbel method，and the response of probability of failure(PoF) of each grid to Pa and Pe was calculated. Then the study area was reclassified according to the sensitivity of the grid response，and the hazard assessment matrix was used to predict the landslide hazard in the whole area. The calculation results showed that when the rainfall return period reached 50 years and 100 years，92.1% of the landslide points fell into the very high and high hazard areas. Compared with the traditional TRIGRS model which didn?t consider the effect extent of rainfall on grid PoF，the AUC accuracy of the proposed method increased by 7.6%–9.0%. The current method can effectively predict the occurrence of landslides under extreme rainfall conditions in the future，and the influence of rainfall infiltration and extreme rainfall are considered at the same time，which can further improve the rationality of regional landslide hazard prediction.

Key words： slope engineering physically-based model landslide hazard rainfall return period effective infiltration Tibetan plateau

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	Articles by authors
	GUO Zizheng1
	ZHOU Xinyong1
	HUANG Da2
	TIAN Bixia1
	HE Jun1

Cite this article:

GUO Zizheng1,ZHOU Xinyong1,HUANG Da2, et al. A landslide hazard prediction framework by considering physically-based model and effective rainfall infiltration—A case study from Yarlung Zangbo River of Shannan City in the Tibetan Plateau[J]. , 2024, 43(4): 986-998.

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http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2023.0326 OR http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2024/V43/I4/986

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