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| Discussion and prospects on induced seismicity from shale gas extraction: A case study of the Sichuan Basin |
| HUANG Bingxiang1, XING Yuekun1, LI Binghong1, LI Xiaofan2, ZHAO Xinglong1, MENG Lingyuan2 |
(1. State Key Laboratory for Fine Exploration and intelligent Development of Coal Resources, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221116, China; 2. China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China)
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Abstract Shale gas is an important unconventional natural gas resource in China. The Sichuan Basin serves as a major production area and is prone to frequent earthquakes, underscoring the urgent need for seismic suppression. This study aims to enhance seismic prevention and control in key production zones by first analyzing the relationship between shale gas development and seismicity. It then reviews the mechanisms of shale-gas-induced earthquakes, summarizes risk assessment and mitigation measures, and outlines future research directions. Statistical data indicate that large-scale shale gas development in the Sichuan Basin coincides with high-frequency, low-magnitude, shallow-depth seismicity, creating a seismic hotspot in southern Sichuan. Initially, seismic frequency increased before declining, while the average magnitude remained around＜4.2. During the early stages of development, numerous low-energy microseismic events released tectonic stress and elastic strain energy. Concurrently, soft rocks surrounding hydraulic fractures attenuated seismic waves, thereby reducing the likelihood of larger earthquakes. We also investigate potential links between staged horizontal-well fracturing and seismicity. Shale gas extraction influences stress and energy transfer within the reservoir, which can reactivate weak-plane faults and trigger earthquakes. The weak-fault-slip mechanism is described using a failure criterion that incorporates dynamic pore pressure evolution, stress perturbation, and fault strength weakening. The dense and active fault network of the Sichuan Basin renders induced seismic risk unavoidable. Its induction mechanisms are more complex than the “injection-driven” or “fracturing-driven” models observed in North America. Consequently, North American seismic control theories have limited applicability in this context. We propose the concept of “earthquakes without disasters” as the goal for safe shale gas extraction. Coordinated multi-well operations and superimposed multi-fracture perturbations for seismic suppression provide key pathways for optimizing safe and efficient development.
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2025, Vol. 44 
