基于时间概率模型的降雨型滑坡精细化气象预警研究

doi:10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2024.0805

Abstract
Figure/Table
References (0)
Related Citation (15)

Download: PDF (8226 KB) HTML (1 KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract The landslide meteorological early warning model based on empirical rainfall thresholds (ERT) often has a low warning accuracy, and the temporal probability model (TPM) is expected to address this shortcoming. To verify this hypothesis, a comparative experiment was conducted. First, we used accumulated effective rainfall-duration (EE-D) and same-day rainfall plus accumulated effective rainfall over the previous four days (R0-AE4) as variables to construct two sets of TPM models. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and correlation coefficient were then used to evaluate the discriminative and predictive abilities of ERT and TPM. Subsequently, the conditional probability formula was employed to couple the spatiotemporal probability of landslides, resulting in the proposal of a probabilistic landslide meteorological early warning model (P-LEWM). Finally, through simulated warnings, P-LEWM was compared with the matrix-based landslide early warning model (M-LEWM), which was constructed using ERT. The results indicate that: (1) The ERT/TPM constructed with R0-AE4 is more accurate in assessing the hazard level of rainfall-triggered landslides, with the area under the ROC curve increasing by 6.8% to 12.5% compared to EE-D. (2) The TPM proposed in this paper can accurately predict the probability of rainfall-triggered landslides, with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and recorded triggering-rainfall amounts exceeding 0.83. Additionally, the EE-D type TPM is more accurate for heavy rainfall prediction, while R0-AE4 is more suitable for regular rainfall events. (3) The EE-D type ERT tends to underestimate the hazard level of prolonged heavy rainfall in triggering landslides, causing M-LEWM to miss numerous landslides during two typical rainfall events in 2018, with a missed rate exceeding 50%, whereas P-LEWM constructed with TPM achieved a correct alert rate of over 90%. (4) Due to the accurate TPM and a reasonable spatiotemporal model coupling method, the correct alert rate of P-LEWM proposed in this paper has significantly improved compared to M-LEWM. The correct alert rate increased by 20.7% to 26.0%, the reasonable correct alert rate increased by 15.6% to 28.6%, and the missed alert rate decreased by more than 20.5%.

Key words： slope engineering rainfall-induced landslide rainfall threshold temporal probability early warning

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	SONG Yufei1
	LI Xiang2
	FAN Wen2
	YU Ningyu2
	CAO Yanbo2
	DENG Longsheng2
	TAO Hong3

Cite this article:

SONG Yufei1,LI Xiang2,FAN Wen2, et al. Refined meteorological early warning for rainfall-induced landslide based on temporal probability model[J]. , 2025, 44(6): 1553-1568.

URL:

https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2024.0805 OR https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2025/V44/I6/1553

[13]	BAUM R L，GODT J W. Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA[J]. Landslides，2010，7(3)：259-272.
[1]	GUZZETTI F，GARIANO S L，PERUCCACCI S，et al. Geographical landslide early warning systems[J]. Earth-Science Reviews，2020，200：102973.
[14]	ZHANG G，CHEN L，DONG Z. Real-time warning system of regional landslides supported by webgis and its application in zhejiang province，china[J]. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science，2011，2：247-254.
[2]	CAINE N. The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows[J]. Geografiska Annaler：Series A，Physical Geography，1980，62(1/2)：23-27.
[15]	李铁锋，丛威青. 基于Logistic回归及前期有效雨量的降雨诱发型滑坡预测方法[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报，2006，17(1)：33-35.(LI Tiefeng，CONG Weiqing. A method for rainfall-induced landslides prediction based on Logistic regression and effective antecedent rainfall[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control，2006，17(1)：33-35.(in Chinese))
[3]	CANNON S H，GARTNER J E，WILSON R C，et al. Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern colorado and southern california[J]. Geomorphology，2008，96(3/4)：250-269.
[16]	GLADE T，CROZIER M，SMITH P. Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical“antecedent daily rainfall model”[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics，2000，157(6)：1 059-1 079.
[4]	GUZZETTI F，PERUCCACCI S，ROSSI M，et al. Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern europe[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics，2007，98(3/4)：239-267.
[17]	MELILLO M，BRUNETTI M T，PERUCCACCI S，et al. An algorithm for the objective reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for landslides[J]. Landslides，2015，12(2)：311-320.
[5]	LIU S，DU J，YIN K，et al. Regional early warning model for rainfall induced landslide based on slope unit in Chongqing，China[J]. Engineering Geology，2024，333：107464.
[18]	VESSIA G，PARISE M，BRUNETTI M T，et al. Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，2014，14(9)：2 399- 2 408.
[6]	JIANG W Y，CHEN G，MENG X M，et al. Probabilistic rainfall threshold of landslides in data-scarce mountainous areas：A case study of the Bailong river basin，China[J]. Catena，2022，213：106190.
[19]	PERUCCACCI S，BRUNETTI M T，LUCIANI S，et al. Lithological and seasonal control on rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides in central italy[J]. Geomorphology，2012，139-140：79-90.
[7]	JIANG Z Y，FAN X M，SIVA SUBRAMANIAN S，et al. Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for debris flows occurred after the Wenchuan earthquake using a Bayesian technique[J]. Engineering Geology，2021，280：105965.
[20]	黄发明，陈佳武，范宣梅，等. 降雨型滑坡时间概率的逻辑回归拟合及连续概率滑坡危险性建模[J]. 地球科学，2022，47(12)： 4 609-4 628.(HUANG Faming，CHEN Jiawu，FAN Xuanmei，et al. Logistic regression fitting of rainfall-induced landslide occurrence probability and continuous landslide hazard prediction modelling[J]. Earth Science，2022，47(12)：4 609-4 628.(in Chinese))
[8]	PICIULLO L，CALVELLO M，CEPEDA JOSÉ M. Territorial early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides[J]. Earth-Science Reviews，2018，179：228-247.
[21]	FENWICK D，SCHEIDT C，CAERS J. Quantifying asymmetric parameter interactions in sensitivity analysis：Application to reservoir modeling[J]. Mathematical Geosciences，2014，46(4)：493-511.
[9]	BERTI M，MARTINA M，FRANCESCHINI S，et al. Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a bayesian approach[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research：Earth Surface，2012，117(F4)：5 623.
[22]	宋宇飞，范文，左琛，等. 基于敏感性分析的最优降雨阈值选择[J]. 工程地质学报，2024，32(2)：529-544.(SONG Yufei，FAN Wen，ZUO Chen，et al. The optimal rainfall thresholds selection based on sensitivity analysis[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology，2024，32(2)：529-544.(in Chinese)).
[10]	ZHAO B R，DAI Q，HAN D W，et al. Probabilistic thresholds for landslides warning by integrating soil moisture conditions with rainfall thresholds[J]. Journal of Hydrology，2019，574：276-287.
[23]	GUZZETTI F，PERUCCACCI S，ROSSI M，et al. The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows：An update[J]. Landslides，2008，5(1)：3-17.
[11]	XIAO T，ZHANG L-M. Data-driven landslide forecasting：Methods，data completeness，and real-time warning[J]. Engineering Geology，2023，317：107068.
[24]	中华人民共和国行业标准编写组. DZ/T 0449—2023 地质灾害气象风险预警规范[S]. 北京：地质出版社，2024.(The Professional Standards Compilation Group of People?s Republic of China. DZ/T 0449—2023 Specification of geological hazard risk early warning based on meteorological factors[S]. Beijing：Geology Press，2024.(in Chinese))
[12]	XIAO T，ZHANG L M，CHEUNG R W M，et al. Predicting spatio-temporal man-made slope failures induced by rainfall in Hong Kong using machine learning techniques[J]. Géotechnique，2023，73(9)：749-765.
[25]	JENSEN F V，NIELSEN T D. Bayesian networks and decision graphs[M]. New York：Springer，2007：5-7.
[13]	BAUM R L，GODT J W. Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA[J]. Landslides，2010，7(3)：259-272.
[26]	PICIULLO L，TIRANTI D，PECORARO G，et al. Standards for the performance assessment of territorial landslide early warning systems[J]. Landslides，2020，17(11)：2 533-2 546.
[14]	ZHANG G，CHEN L，DONG Z. Real-time warning system of regional landslides supported by webgis and its application in zhejiang province，china[J]. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science，2011，2：247-254.
[27]	CALVELLO M，PICIULLO L. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models：The edumap method[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，2016，16(1)：103-122.
[28]	PICIULLO L，DAHL M P，DEVOLI G，et al. Adapting the edumap method to test the performance of the norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，2017，17(6)：817-831.
[15]	李铁锋，丛威青. 基于Logistic回归及前期有效雨量的降雨诱发型滑坡预测方法[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报，2006，17(1)：33-35.(LI Tiefeng，CONG Weiqing. A method for rainfall-induced landslides prediction based on Logistic regression and effective antecedent rainfall[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control，2006，17(1)：33-35.(in Chinese))
[29]	PICIULLO L，GARIANO S L，MELILLO M，et al. Definition and performance of a threshold-based regional early warning model for rainfall-induced landslides[J]. Landslides，2017，14(3)：995-1 008.
[16]	GLADE T，CROZIER M，SMITH P. Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical“antecedent daily rainfall model”[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics，2000，157(6)：1 059-1 079.
[30]	BRUNETTI M，PERUCCACCI S，ROSSI M，et al. Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in italy[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，2010，10(3)：447-458.
[17]	MELILLO M，BRUNETTI M T，PERUCCACCI S，et al. An algorithm for the objective reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for landslides[J]. Landslides，2015，12(2)：311-320.
[18]	VESSIA G，PARISE M，BRUNETTI M T，et al. Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，2014，14(9)：2 399- 2 408.
[19]	PERUCCACCI S，BRUNETTI M T，LUCIANI S，et al. Lithological and seasonal control on rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides in central italy[J]. Geomorphology，2012，139-140：79-90.
[20]	黄发明，陈佳武，范宣梅，等. 降雨型滑坡时间概率的逻辑回归拟合及连续概率滑坡危险性建模[J]. 地球科学，2022，47(12)： 4 609-4 628.(HUANG Faming，CHEN Jiawu，FAN Xuanmei，et al. Logistic regression fitting of rainfall-induced landslide occurrence probability and continuous landslide hazard prediction modelling[J]. Earth Science，2022，47(12)：4 609-4 628.(in Chinese))
[21]	FENWICK D，SCHEIDT C，CAERS J. Quantifying asymmetric parameter interactions in sensitivity analysis：Application to reservoir modeling[J]. Mathematical Geosciences，2014，46(4)：493-511.
[22]	宋宇飞，范文，左琛，等. 基于敏感性分析的最优降雨阈值选择[J]. 工程地质学报，2024，32(2)：529-544.(SONG Yufei，FAN Wen，ZUO Chen，et al. The optimal rainfall thresholds selection based on sensitivity analysis[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology，2024，32(2)：529-544.(in Chinese)).
[23]	GUZZETTI F，PERUCCACCI S，ROSSI M，et al. The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows：An update[J]. Landslides，2008，5(1)：3-17.
[24]	中华人民共和国行业标准编写组. DZ/T 0449—2023 地质灾害气象风险预警规范[S]. 北京：地质出版社，2024.(The Professional Standards Compilation Group of People?s Republic of China. DZ/T 0449—2023 Specification of geological hazard risk early warning based on meteorological factors[S]. Beijing：Geology Press，2024.(in Chinese))
[25]	JENSEN F V，NIELSEN T D. Bayesian networks and decision graphs[M]. New York：Springer，2007：5-7.
[26]	PICIULLO L，TIRANTI D，PECORARO G，et al. Standards for the performance assessment of territorial landslide early warning systems[J]. Landslides，2020，17(11)：2 533-2 546.
[27]	CALVELLO M，PICIULLO L. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models：The edumap method[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，2016，16(1)：103-122.
[28]	PICIULLO L，DAHL M P，DEVOLI G，et al. Adapting the edumap method to test the performance of the norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，2017，17(6)：817-831.
[29]	PICIULLO L，GARIANO S L，MELILLO M，et al. Definition and performance of a threshold-based regional early warning model for rainfall-induced landslides[J]. Landslides，2017，14(3)：995-1 008.
[30]	BRUNETTI M，PERUCCACCI S，ROSSI M，et al. Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in italy[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，2010，10(3)：447-458.