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| STUDY OF DISPLACEMENT PREDICTION MODEL OF LANDSLIDE BASED ON TIME SERIES ANALYSIS |
| 边坡工程；滑坡；位移预测；时间序列；GM(1，1)灰色模型；自回归(AR)模型 |
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Abstract Based on the displacement monitoring data and displacement evolution of landslide，total displacement can be divided into trend term displacement which is controlled by its own geological conditions and periodic term displacement affected by external factors such as rainfall，water level changes，and so on. Then the displacement prediction model of landslide can be established by time series analysis. Double moving average method is used to separate the trend term displacement and periodic term displacement of landslide. On this basis，GM(1，1) grey model is used to forecast the trend term displacement；and autoregressive(AR) model is used to forecast the periodic term displacement. Total displacement is obtained by adding the calculated predictive displacement value of each sub-stack. Taking Bazimen landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area for example，it is shown that the result could better reflect the development trend of landslide under external factors，based on the comparative analysis of the measured and predicted displacement-time curves. The results demonstrate that the established landslide displacement prediction model is feasible and effective in the landslide displacement prediction.
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Received: 03 December 2010
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2011, Vol. 30 
