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| ROCKFALL IMPULSE WAVE ANALYSIS METHOD BASED ON MONTE CARLO METHOD |
| HUANG Bolin1，2，CHEN Xiaoting2，YIN Yueping1，3 |
| (1. Faculty of Engineering，China University of Geosciences，Wuhan，Hubei 430074，China；2. Wuhan Centre of China Geological Survey，Wuhan，Hubei 430223，China；3. China Institute for Geoenvironment Monitoring，Beijing 100081，China) |
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Abstract The calculation of landslide impulse wave involves many parameters. Nowadays，impulse wave calculation adopts determinate algorithm at home and abroad，which ignores random character of parameters. Rockfall impulse wave analysis ideology and formula is built based on Monte Carlo method. Taking Jianchuandong dangerous rockmass in the Three Gorges Reservoir for example，probability of three random variables，which are water depth，the probability distribution of impulse celerity and immergence volume，are analyzed. On these bases，sensitivity sequence of random variables and impulse wave is analyzed. The results show that the sensitivity of random variables is impulse celerity，immergence volume，water depth；the impulse wave generated by Jianchuandong dangerous rockmass probability distribution are submitted to normal distribution，its mean is 7.02 m. The probability of generating red alarm impulse wave is 90.8%. Thus，it is strongly suggested to manage Jianchuandong rockmass as soon to reduce impulse wave risk. Impulse wave analysis method based on the Monte Carlo method is the trend in this field in the future，which can be used to understand impulse wave risk better，and be used to geohazard risk management in reservoirs and water-way safety risk management.
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Received: 13 January 2012
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2012, Vol. 31 
